The Houston Rockets are heavy 75% favorites against the Denver Nuggets tonight at the Toyota Center.
Denver's spot-up defense is a big point of concern, and my Nuggets vs. Rockets prediction sees Jabari Smith Jr. taking full advantage.
Let's get into my NBA picks for Monday, Nov. 9.
Nuggets vs Rockets prediction: Rockets -8.5
I'm on the Houston Rockets to cover the spread to 54%.
They're off to a strong 7-3 start and sit second to the Spurs with a +13.23 SRS, which takes into account net rating and strength of schedule.
The Rockets have a big edge in rebounding, ranking 12 slots above the Denver Nuggets in total rebound percentage while also sitting fourth in offensive boards.
Houston is likely to grind out extra possessions with their rebounding. Their fifth-ranked true shooting percentage bodes well for their chances of making them count, too.
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Nuggets vs Rockets player props
TOP PICK
Rockets player prop: Jabari Smith Jr. Over 2.5 threes
Playable to 52%.
Smith Jr. has been raining threes this season, especially when facing teams that allow plenty of volume from downtown.
Smith Jr. averages 3.5 3-pointers per game and cleared this line in five of six matchups against teams outside the Top 10 in suppressing 3-point attempts.
The Nuggets rank 30th in defending catch-and-shoots, which is how Smith gets 44% of his buckets.
They also sit 29th against spot-ups, and Smith has averaged 3.6 threes against Bottom-10 opponents in that category.
COVERS INTEL: The Nuggets allow 33 points per game on spot-up shots, second-most in the NBA. Smith Jr. scores more of his points from spot-ups than any other type.Nuggets vs Rockets combo
I like the Rockets to best the Nuggets by margin, and expect Jabari Smith Jr. to play a big role in that.
He's averaging 17.3 points per game with a healthy chunk coming on threes on the back of lethal 47.5% shooting from range.
The Nuggets are 30th in defending catch-and-shoots, setting up for Smith to rain threes.
Alperen Sengun has averaged 8.6 assists on 15.6 potentials over the last five games, and should see extra minutes with Clint Capela sidelined.
Nuggets vs Rockets combo
- Rockets -8.5
- Jabari Smith Jr. Over 2.5 threes
- Alperen Sengun 8+ assists
- Top picks: 2-1, +1.00 units
- Combos: 1-2, +2.50 units
- Props: 2-1, +1.00 units
Nuggets vs Rockets odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Nuggets +8.5 (51%) | Rockets -8.5 (52%)
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 (52%) | Under 219.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Nuggets 26% | Rockets 75%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Nuggets vs Rockets trend
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Nuggets vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 9, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA League Pass |
Nuggets vs Rockets latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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