The Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football tonight, Monday, Nov. 9, in a matchup featuring several intriguing player prop options on both sides. Buffalo carries a 61% moneyline probability, and Carson Wentz is starting for the Vikings in place of the injured Kyler Murray (hamstring).
Our Bills vs. Vikings computer picks break down eight model-backed projections from our NFL player prop projections, highlighting the best opportunities ahead of MNF. Head over to our NFL picks for more expert analysis.
Bills vs Vikings computer picks
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 Bills |
 Vikings |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen 225+ passing yards 57% |
Carson Wentz 200+ passing yards 58% |
| Dalton Kincaid 40+ receiving yards 46% |
Justin Jefferson 70+ receiving yards 63% |
| Josh Allen 30+ rushing yards 53% |
T.J. Hockenson 40+ receiving yards 50% |
| James Cook 10+ receiving yards 47% |
Aaron Jones 30+ rushing yards 54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Bills vs Vikings computer picks and projections
Bills computer picks
Josh Allen 225+ passing yards
Projection: 249.66 passing yards
Josh Allen gets the nod through the air, with the model projecting 249.66 passing yards against a 224.5-yard line. That's a 25.2-yard advantage, giving this Over a 24.58% expected-value edge. The dome conditions in Minnesota should also help passing efficiency and volume, making Allen's passing projection even more appealing.
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Dalton Kincaid 40+ receiving yards
Projection: 50.39 receiving yards
The model projects Dalton Kincaid for 50.39 receiving yards, comfortably above the 39.5-yard threshold. That's a 10.9-yard gap and a 27.2% expected-value edge, one of the strongest receiving props on the board. Kincaid has been a productive option for Allen, and the model envisions him continuing to find opportunities. He was limited in practice with a chest injury but carries no injury designation for Monday.
Our Josh Inglis is highlighting Kincaid too in his Bills vs. Vikings anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
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Josh Allen 30+ rushing yards
Projection: 34.18 rushing yards
Allen is a threat on the ground as well, with a 34.18-yard rushing projection against a 29.5-yard line. The 4.7-yard difference produces a 21.72% expected-value edge. The Bills quarterback has been productive as a runner this season (270 yards at 38.5 per game), and the model expects him to remain involved with his legs.
Our Jason Logan is also featuring this selection as part of his Bills vs. Vikings prop picks.
🔥Trade Josh Allen rushing yards now
James Cook III 10+ receiving yards
Projection: 14.76 receiving yards
James Cook III rounds out the Bills picks as a pass-catching option out of the backfield. His 14.76-yard projection sits 5.3 yards above the 9.5-yard threshold, giving the Over a 26.63% expected-value edge. Cook's receiving involvement has been a useful part of Buffalo's offense, and he's been emerging as a pass-catcher over the team's past two games while accumulating 79 receiving yards.
🔥Trade James Cook receiving yards now
Vikings computer picks
Carson Wentz 200+ passing yards
Projection: 229.18 passing yards
Carson Wentz is projected for 229.18 passing yards, a sizable 29.7-yard gap above the 199.5-yard threshold. That difference creates a 24.52% expected-value edge and makes this one of Minnesota's most attractive model-backed props. Buffalo's opponents have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game this season, giving Wentz a favorable opportunity to accumulate volume.
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Justin Jefferson 70+ receiving yards
Projection: 78.12 receiving yards
Justin Jefferson is projected for 78.12 receiving yards, 8.6 yards above the 69.5-yard line. That difference produces an 18.59% expected-value advantage. Jefferson remains Minnesota's primary receiving weapon, and the model expects him to make the most of his chances against Buffalo.
Inglis is eyeing another Vikings receiver in his Bills vs. Vikings prediction.
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T.J. Hockenson 40+ receiving yards
Projection: 48.70 receiving yards
T.J. Hockenson also grades out as an Over candidate through the air. His 48.70-yard projection sits 9.2 yards above the 39.5-yard threshold, creating a 25.22% expected-value edge. The Bills have allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
🔥Trade T.J. Hockenson receiving yards now
Aaron Jones Sr. 30+ rushing yards
Projection: 32.55 rushing yards
Aaron Jones Sr. gets the nod in the ground game, with the computer projecting 32.55 rushing yards against a 29.5-yard threshold. That's a 3.1-yard advantage, producing a 16.49% expected-value edge. Minnesota could lean more heavily on the run with Wentz under center, giving Jones a path to clear this modest line.
🔥Trade Aaron Jones rushing yards now
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