Monday Night Football comes to Minneapolis tonight, as the injury-riddled Buffalo Bills, who carry a 61% moneyline probability, attempt to take advantage of the indoor fast track against Carson Wentz and the Minnesota Vikings.
Our Bills vs. Vikings expert picks and NFL picks are somewhat divided. One analyst is taking Buffalo against the spread, while another prefers Minnesota to win straight up on Monday, Nov. 9.
Bills vs Vikings expert picks
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| Expert pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: D.J. Moore 50+ receiving yards |
46% |
 Josh Inglis: Under 44.5 |
49% |
 Joe Osborne: BUF -3.5 |
47% |
 Jon Metler: MIN ML |
38% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan's expert pick: D.J. Moore 50+ receiving yards
We don't often get D.J. Moore healthy and playing indoors at the same time. But the Bills wide receiver is ready to run on the fast track at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Moore has been a monster throughout his career in rare indoor games, and he has Josh Allen's arm powering him. He was limited in practice with a shoulder injury but carries no injury designation for Monday.
The last time Moore and Allen hooked up inside, he went for 100 yards at Houston in Week 1. Most Week 9 projections sit north of 50 yards for Moore vs. the Vikings, with a ceiling of 64.5 yards on MNF. Logan's full Bills vs. Vikings prop picks also include Jordan Addison and Josh Allen yardage props.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Under 44.5
The Vikings have flown under the radar as one of the NFL's best Under teams, hitting in 16 of their last 19 games for a 60% ROI. This 44.5 total has moved below the key number of 44 elsewhere, after opening as high as 47.5 on the look-ahead.
Allen has had success against Brian Flores (16:2 TD-to-INT over six games), but Buffalo's offensive line injuries and this blitz-heavy defense have me leaning Under.
The Bills could be without two starting linemen, with left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson both questionable, while wide receiver Joshua Palmer is out. Moore and Khalil Shakir are cleared. Buffalo could score 25, and this could still cash comfortably against a Carson Wentz-led offense that was already Bottom 5 with Kyler Murray (hamstring) under center. Read more in Inglis' full Bills vs. Vikings prediction.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Bills -3.5
I'm not calling the Vikings frauds. Their defense is too good for that. But when your fanbase is excited about Wentz replacing Murray, we've got a problem.
Minnesota ranks 24th or worse in scoring, yards per play, and third-down conversion rate. And Wentz is the solution? Last week's competitive score against Detroit was misleading, as Minnesota was outgained by 118 yards.
The Vikes have scored 16 or fewer in three of four games, and that's not enough against Buffalo's No. 1 scoring offense.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Vikings moneyline
I don't even need the points. Give me the Vikings on the moneyline. I price them closer to a 45% underdog, making the 38% available at Kalshi an easy buy.
All we've heard about Minnesota's 6-1 start is that it's fraudulent and the Vikings are destined to come back down to earth. But with a rocking dome behind them and extra preparation time for Flores to scheme against Allen, I like Minnesota to silence the doubters.
The real frauds might just be the Bills. For the other side, see Jason Logan's Bills vs. Vikings moneyline pick, which backs Buffalo.
How to watch Bills vs Vikings
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn. |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN/ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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