Not even Minnesota's top-tier defense can slow down the highest-scoring offense and MVP frontrunner, Josh Allen, when the Bills and Vikings meet indoors on Monday Night Football.
My Bills vs. Vikings anytime touchdown scorer predictions will look through every possible plane-breaker for Monday, Nov. 9, and find the gems to hopefully turn Week 9 into a profitable one with some NFL picks.
Additionally, my Bills vs. Vikings predictions are eyeing the Under, even though I've got some key TD shares below.
Best Bills vs Vikings anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Dalton Kincaid |
25% |
 Jordan Addison |
26% |
| First TD: Josh Allen |
16% |
| Long shot: Dawson Knox |
11% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Bills touchdown pick: Dalton Kincaid
With the injuries to the Buffalo Bills' offensive line, expect this offense to continue leaning on the multi-TE sets it runs at one of the highest rates in the league.
Dalton Kincaid has bounced back after an ugly Week 3-5 stretch, recording 14 targets over the last two weeks, including five red-zone targets. That's the most red-zone work he's seen in any two-game stretch of his career.
Kincaid has an elite 19.4% red-zone target share (87th percentile) and one of the largest red-zone workloads among tight ends in the league.
Vikings touchdown pick: Jordan Addison
The loss of Kyler Murray doesn't significantly change my outlook on this play, but any quality receiver against this Buffalo defense at 3.5x or better is worth a look.
I got Jordan Addison at 4.0x after he saw eight targets and accounted for 52% of the air yards in Week 8. There's a good chance the Minnesota Vikings will have to push the ball downfield as a 3.5-point underdog in an indoor game, which sets up nicely for a 4.0x TD price.
No team allows more receiving TDs to opposing wide receivers than the Bills at 1.35 per game. They're also a bottom-seven unit in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate.
First touchdown scorer pick: Josh Allen
I'm happy not to be overthinking first TD props with Josh Allen. He's scored in six of seven games, cashing a first TD in two of them and scoring his team's first TD in another two. That's a solid 43% ROI on Allen first TD bets to date.
He may be running less between the 20s, but the red zone still belongs to him. Allen had four red-zone carries last week and has 18 on the season, with eight rushing TDs inside the 20, more than anyone in football.
He's also scored three rushing TDs in six career games against Brian Flores as Dolphins head coach.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Dawson Knox
This is the best +EV touchdown play on the slate, per Covers projections. Dawson Knox should be priced around 14% as the TE2 in the league's highest-scoring offense. With injuries along Buffalo's offensive line, the Bills could lean more on multi-TE sets, giving Knox additional opportunities.
He played 72% of the snaps last week and ran 50% of the routes, which is a lot of involvement for a player priced this long to score.
Bills vs Vikings touchdown combo
It's another crack at hitting the MNF double-QB rushing TD combo, which has already cashed once at better than 15x.
This week is appealing with Allen as one of the legs, having scored in six of seven games.
Carson Wentz is the tougher leg, but the 33-year-old can still move when needed, and red-zone pressure could lead to a scramble TD. I'll be playing this every MNF.
- TD picks: 26-78, -14.25 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
