Our Bills vs. Vikings score prediction backs Minnesota to pull off the outright upset over Buffalo with Carson Wentz starting in place of the injured Kyler Murray. These two 6-1 teams close Week 9 on Monday Night Football at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, with kickoff set for tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC).
Our AI projection model forecasts a 23-22 Vikings win in our NFL AI predictions for Week 9, giving us Vikings +3.5 and Over 44.5 with Josh Allen as our anytime touchdown pick. We break down his chances and compare our spread pick with the Covers projections and expert picks using lines from one of the best prediction market apps.
Bills vs Vikings score prediction & AI picks
Win probabilities courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; latest odds may vary based on market action.
Bills vs Vikings AI prediction
MON · 8:15 p.m. ET · ESPN/ABC
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
The Vikings can make Allen’s night difficult before he even takes the snap. Brian Flores sends extra rushers on 71% of opposing dropbacks, per NFL Pro. That’s a tough assignment for the left side of the Bills’ line, where tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) and guard Alec Anderson (ankle) are both questionable. If the Vikings can force Allen to throw short on third down and tackle the receiver in front of the sticks, they have a way to get the NFL’s highest-scoring offense off the field. Let Allen escape up the middle, though, and he can pick up that first down himself.
Wentz threw for just 143 yards in a 9-3 win over the Bears in his only start this season. He also threw three touchdowns in relief against the Packers, including a 39-yarder to Justin Jefferson. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw has no game designation, which helps the Vikings give Wentz time to find Jefferson downfield. Josh Inglis takes Under 44.5 in his Bills vs. Vikings prediction, citing the quarterback change and Buffalo’s protection concerns. At 45 projected points, our Over has half a point to spare. One red-zone trip that ends in a field goal instead of a touchdown would flip it.
Bills vs Vikings AI touchdown projection
Bills vs Vikings AI projections & expert picks
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Chris Vasile |
|---|---|---|
| MIN+3.5 | BUF-3.5 | BUF-3.5 |
Our AI model calls for the Vikings to win outright. The Covers projections have the Bills winning by four, enough to cover -3.5 by half a point. Chris Vasile also lays the 3.5 with the Bills in his Week 9 ATS picks.
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How our NFL AI predictions work
Our NFL AI predictions use a custom forecasting model built with GPT-6 Astra to project a final score for each matchup using historical scoring results and team-strength ratings. We review injuries and matchup news for the accompanying analysis.
The score forecasts are fixed before we compare them with the selected Kalshi spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under picks. Kalshi percentages are market quotes, separate from the score forecasts. Our touchdown pick is an AI-assisted editorial selection based on player usage and matchup research, not an output of the team-score model. We track results against the original selections and lines at time of publish.
We’ll continue updating the process as the season develops and publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection.
