Dallas hosts Indiana on Monday, Nov. 9, at 8 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center, favored by 3.5 points with a 225.5 total.
My Pacers vs. Mavericks prediction hinges on pace, not recent Under trends. Their first meeting produced 226 points despite poor Pacers shooting, and my picks target another fast game plus two player props.
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TOP PICK
Pacers vs Mavericks prediction: Over 225.5
I'm fading the Under-friendly trends and taking the Over 225.5, up to 227.5.
The Dallas Mavericks beat the Indiana Pacers 121-105 on the road in their first meeting this season, which fell short of the 241.5-point total. Granted, Indiana point guard Tyrese Haliburton played in that game and won't be out there Monday, but the market has overcorrected.
Despite the Pacers shooting just 21.9% from behind the arc against the Mavs last month, they still went Over Monday's number. Meanwhile, Indiana's road games average 236 points per game (ppg) compared to just 213 ppg at home.
Also, the Pacers get out in transition at the seventh-highest frequency in the NBA and Dallas' fast-break rate ranks eighth, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
COVERS INTEL: The first Pacers-Mavericks meeting this season had a 102.6 pace, which would rank second in the Association if it were a team. Even if both teams shoot poorly, it'll be tough for the Under to get home if they play that fast again tonight.
Pacers vs Mavericks combo
I'm combining Mavericks moneyline with the Over 225.5, and my favorite player prop, Indiana forward Pascal Siakam's 2+ threes, which I'll discuss below. First of all, the Pacers are 1-5 straight-up in games Haliburton has missed.
More importantly, I just like how the Mavericks are playing, and Cooper Flagg is already a top-20 player in the NBA. Dallas has the second-best spread differential over the past two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
As long as Flagg and Kyrie Irving stay healthy, the Mavs will be in the mix for a top-six seed in the Western Conference. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, Dallas has a +10.6 net rating when Flagg and Kyrie are on the floor at the same time.
Pacers vs Mavericks combo
- Over 225.5
- Mavericks moneyline
- Pascal Siakam 2+ threes
Pacers vs Mavericks player props
Pacers player prop: Pascal Siakam 2+ threes
I like Siakam's 2+ threes price up to 45%, especially with the pace I'm projecting. Siakam should lead Indiana in usage and shot volume, and he's made exactly two threes in each of his last two games. He also went 3-for-5 from deep against Dallas last month.
Furthermore, Siakam has some weird home-road shooting splits. Last season, he shot 38.5% from beyond the arc on the road compared to just 32.8% at home. That road shooting edge gives me another reason to like his price tonight.
Mavericks player prop: P.J. Washington 15+ points
P.J. Washington's 15+ points prop is tradable up to 50%.
Washington has cleared this number in half his games this season and scored 20 against Indiana in their earlier meeting. He has the third-highest usage rate among Dallas' starters, playing alongside two elite playmakers in Flagg and Kyrie.
That should work in Washington's favor against a Pacers defense that will have its hands full containing Dallas' primary creators. As a floor-spacing stretch four, Washington should get wide-open looks when Flagg and Kyrie break down Indiana's defense off the dribble. Plus, he doesn't need a massive shooting night to reach 15 points.
- Top picks: 9-8, +1.18 units
- Combos: 0-17, -10.25 units
- Props: 13-17-1, -3.50 units
Pacers vs Mavericks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Pacers +3.5 | Mavericks -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
- Moneyline: Pacers 41% | Mavericks 60%
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Pacers vs Mavericks trend
The Pacers are 3-2 to the Over this season. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Pacers vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 9, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN-Indiana, KFAA |
Pacers vs Mavericks latest injuries
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