College Football Top 25 Predictions Week 1: Watchability Ratings & Best Bets

Every single ranked team takes the field in Week 1 of the college football season, but most are beginning the year with layups - 20 of the 24 games featuring Top 25 programs have a spread of 20 or more points, and 11 have spreads of at least 30.

Despite the less-than-stellar slate of games, my Week 1 college football Top 25 predictions and college football picks break down the best plays for every matchup and rank every game by watchability.

College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 1

(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)

Matchup	Watch Rating	Pick	Probability
24 Louisville vs. 9 Mississippi	5/5	+6.5 🟡	47%
Clemson vs. 11 LSU	5/5	+10.5 🟡	53%
Washington State vs. 17 Washington	4/5	+23.5 🟡	51%
19 SMU vs.  Florida State	4/5	-3.5 🟡	48%
Boise State vs.  2 Oregon	4/5	-24.5 🟢	49%
Wisconsin vs. 4 Notre Dame	3/5	-20.5 🟢	49%
7 Miami vs.  Stanford	3/5	+24.5 🟡	51%
Western Michigan vs. 16 Michigan	3/5	+27.5 🟡	49%
Fresno State vs. 14 USC	3/5	+21.5 🟡	50%
Oregon State vs. 23 Houston	3/5	-20.5 🟡	52%
Marshall vs. 18 Penn State	2/5	-23.5 🟡	51%
Texas State vs. 5 Texas	2/5	+30.5 🟡	53%
East Carolina vs. 13 Alabama	2/5	-27.5 🟡	53%
North Texas vs. 6 Indiana	1/5	-40.5 🟡	49%
Northern Illinois vs. 22 Iowa	1/5	-31.5 🟡	49%
Furman vs. 20 Tennessee	1/5	-48.5 🟡	52%
Abilene Christian vs. 12 Texas Tech	1/5	-42.5 🟡	51%
Missouri State vs. 8 Texas A&M	1/5	-41.5 🟢	46%
UTEP vs. 10 Oklahoma	1/5	+41.5 🟡	50%
Ball State vs. 1 Ohio State	1/5	-50.5 🟡	48%
Idaho vs. 21 Utah	1/5	-35.5 🟢	48%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. 25 Missouri	1/5	-54.5 🟡	49%
Utah Tech vs. 14 BYU	1/5	-51.5 🟢	50%
Tennessee State vs. 3 Georgia	1/5	-47.5 🟢	46%

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Tier 1 watchability for Week 1 (must-watch)

No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Mississippi

• Game info: Sunday, Sept. 6 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
• ATS pick: Louisville +6.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Mississippi (71%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 🟡 

The only matchup between AP Top 25 teams on the schedule, and it's a banger in Nashville. While Trinidad Chambliss is among the Heisman Trophy odds favorites, Mississippi's defense is relying heavily on transfers (seven projected starters), and its offense has a new coordinator in John David Baker after Charlie Weis Jr. followed Lane Kiffin to LSU.

Louisville might not have the talent to win outright, but its star power can keep it close. The running back duo of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown should take advantage of a Rebels defense that was 82nd in EPA per rush last season. And the Cardinals have a top pass rush duo in Clev Lubin and AJ Green who can expose Ole Miss' two new starting offensive tackles.

Mississippi wins 31-27.

Clemson vs. No. 11 LSU

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
• ATS pick: Clemson +10.5 🟡
• ML pick: LSU (77%) 🟡
• Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟢

The second leg of last year's Death Valley dual looks different this year with Kiffin taking over in Baton Rouge. Although his Tigers are one of the teams atop the college football national championship odds, they're relying heavily on new faces.

Of the 44 players on LSU's projected two-deep, 28 of them are new to the program, including all six of the top wide receivers, the starting QB and running back, and the entire starting defensive line. And though Clemson isn't ranked, Dabo Swinney's roster has high-end talent (Bryant Wesco Jr., T.J. Moore, Will Heldt, Sammy Brown).

LSU's lack of offensive continuity could be an issue early, especially against a defense that's littered with Top 100 NFL prospects and projected to be 16th in the nation by SP+.

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Tier 2 watchability for Week 1 (worth watching)

Washington State vs. No. 17 Washington

• Game info: Sunday, Sept. 6 | 4 p.m. ET | NBC
• ATS pick: Washington State +23.5 🟡
• ML pick: Washington (92%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 50.5 🟢

The Apple Cup isn't what it used to be, but Washington State shouldn't be this big of a dog against its rival. The Cougars loaded up on talent in the transfer portal for Kirby Moore's first season, and QB Caden Pinnick was one of the best signal-callers in the FCS as a freshman at UC Davis (35 total TDs).

Jedd Fisch's Washington program also lost its two best playmakers to the NFL, and nearly lost QB Demond Williams Jr. in a bizarre offseason. The Huskies are set to start three true freshmen in the trenches, too, which could lead to some early hiccups against a Wazzu lineup full of upperclassmen. 

No. 19 SMU vs. Florida State

• Game info: Monday, Sept. 7 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: SMU -3.5 🟡
• ML pick: SMU (60%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 53.5 🟡

Mike Norvell's seat was hot coming into the season, and Florida State's Week 0 win against New Mexico State didn't do anything to cool it down. The Seminoles were messy against one of the worst teams in the FBS - nine missed tackles, eight penalties, multiple blown coverages.

They won't survive an SMU that's ranked in the Top 25 nationally in returning production (62%) with those types of mistakes. The Mustangs return one of the ACC's top QBs, Kevin Jennings, behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country. FSU won't keep up. 

Boise State vs. No. 2 Oregon

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
• ATS pick: Oregon -24.5 🟢
• ML pick: Oregon (49%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 🟡

Two years ago, Boise State managed to lose by just three in Eugene against Oregon, but Ashton Jeanty is in the NFL now, and these Ducks are even better than the 2024 team that went 12-2. Dan Lanning's team is 11th nationally in returning production (66%) and has arguably the best QB in the country in Dante Moore, and he's throwing to one of the top pass-catching corps.

Oregon's defense is even more loaded, with the entire starting defensive line back from last year's unit that finished ranked Top 5 by SP+ and No. 3 in early downs EPA per play. A'Mauri Washington and Co. will expose Boise State's offensive line and blow out the Broncos at home.

Tier 3 watchability for Week 1 (interesting)

Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame

• Game info: Sunday, Sept. 6 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
• ATS pick: Notre Dame -20.5 🟢
• ML pick: Notre Dame (91%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 ⚪

Even with Luke Fickell's best efforts to improve this Wisconsin team through the portal, there will be a clear talent gap between the Badgers and Notre Dame at Lambeau Field. Fickell's former defensive coordinator, Marcus Freeman, has a championship-level roster that's ranked No. 1 in returning production (72%).

The Fighting Irish have a laundry list of stars, from QB CJ Carr to offensive lineman Anthonie Knapp to the best defensive player in the country, Leonard Moore. Moore leads a secondary that's the best in the sport and should frustrate new Wisconsin QB Colton Joseph.

No. 7 Miami vs. Stanford

• Game info: Friday, Sept. 4 | 9 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Stanford +24.5 🟡
• ML pick: Miami (93%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 47.5 🟢

Miami's offense is going to be one of the best in college football this season with the addition of Darian Mensah, who was No. 2 in the nation in TD passes at Duke (34). But as I said in my Miami vs. Stanford prediction, the Cardinal could do enough on offense for this Over to hit and for them to cover.

The Hurricanes rank 74th in returning defensive production, with a trio of their best players from last year set to be Week 1 starters in the NFL. If Davis Warren can be steady at QB again like he was in Week 0, and running back Micah Ford bruises his way to some big plays, Stanford will lose by fewer than 25 points.

Western Michigan vs. No. 16 Michigan

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
• ATS pick: Western Michigan +27.5 🟡
• ML pick: Michigan (96%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 🟢

Michigan should be much improved this season under Kyle Whittingham. Still, the Wolverines are also desperate for sophomore QB Bryce Underwood to live up to his billing as the former No. 1 recruit. Underwood was sporadic as a freshman with more turnover-worthy plays (15) than TD passes (11).

If he gets off to a slow start in new offensive coordinator Jason Beck's offense, Western Michigan will have an opportunity to lose by fewer than four touchdowns. The reigning MAC champs have a run-first style with QB Broc Lowry and running back Jalen Buckley that should shorten this game. 

Fresno State vs. No. 14 USC

• Game info: Friday, Sept. 4 | 9 p.m. ET | FOX
• ATS pick: Fresno State +21.5 🟡
• ML pick: USC (92%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟡

While USC's second-half struggles against San Jose State were overblown, Fresno State is a much more competent Group of Six program. The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the G6 - it ranked No. 1 in the country in EPA per pass last season - and could slow a freshman-heavy Trojans offense.

Matt Entz's defense will be a much bigger challenge for Jayden Maiava's freshman pass catchers, and a slower start will make it hard to win by more than three touchdowns. Fresno State has some real offensive talent, too (Josiah Freeman, Rayshon Luke), capable of pushing what looks like another flimsy USC defense.  

Oregon State vs. No. 23 Houston

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | noon ET | ESPN/Disney+
• ATS pick: Houston -20.5 🟡
• ML pick: Houston (92%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟢

It's hard to gauge what Oregon State will look like under new head coach JaMarcus Shephard, especially with Braden Atkinson being named the starting QB. But with so many transfers in line to start on offense, the Beavers won't score enough to cover against a Houston defense with one of the best secondaries in the Big 12.

The Cougars are seventh nationally in returning offensive production (71%) and have added heavy-hitting transfer talent to a unit that returns QB Conner Weigman and receiver Amare Thomas, including Oregon State's best playmaker from last year, Trent Walker. 

Tier 4 watchability for Week 1 (blowout brewing)

Marshall vs. No. 18 Penn State

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FS1
• ATS pick: Penn State -23.5 🟡
• ML pick: Penn State (94%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 🟡

Matt Campbell is speed-running the Penn State rebuild, thanks to the former Iowa State head coach bringing in so many former Cyclones. The Nittany Lions should have no trouble winning by 24+ points against a Marshall team that was 122nd in EPA per pass on defense last season. 

Texas State vs. No. 5 Texas

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Texas State +30.5 🟡
• ML pick: Texas (97%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 59.5 🟢

Arch Manning this, Arch Manning that, but what about Brad Jackson? Texas State's QB is one of the best in the G6 and had the Bobcats ranked in the Top 25 in both EPA per pass and rush last season. He also returns his two best receivers, Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr.

So while GJ Kinne's team has no shot at winning against Texas, it should do enough on offense to cover.

East Carolina vs. No. 13 Alabama

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | noon ET | ABC
• ATS pick: Alabama -27.5 🟡
• ML pick: Alabama (96%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 52.5 🟡

Get ready to learn all about Alabama QB Keelon Russell. He's Kalen DeBoer's next star QB and should put on a show against an East Carolina defense that's projected to rank 71st by SP+. And the Pirates' offense is almost all new - it's 110th in returning production (42%) - and might not score against a loaded Crimson Tide defense. 

Tier 5 watchability for Week 1 (it's still football)

North Texas vs. No. 6 Indiana

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | noon ET | FOX
• ATS pick: Indiana -40.5 🟡
• ML pick: Indiana (98%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 🟢

This is not the North Texas team you remember from last season ... every relevant player and coach from that team is now at Oklahoma State. The Mean Green are 132nd in returning production (32%) and are starting former Indiana castoff Tayven Jackson at QB.

Curt Cignetti isn't likely to pull punches either, as Indiana looks to see what it has in several key transfers, like QB Josh Hoover and wide receiver Nick Marsh. IU was beating Big Ten teams by more than 40 last year.

Northern Illinois vs. No. 22 Iowa

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 4:15 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
• ATS pick: Iowa -31.5 🟡
• ML pick: Iowa (97%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 44.5 🟡 

Northern Illinois has an interim head coach in Rob Harley, who didn't take over until February, and a starting QB in Taron Dickens, who didn't join the program until July. Opening with Iowa is a recipe for disaster, even with the Hawkeyes not naming a starting QB.

Iowa was Top 30 in EPA per rush last year and returns two All-American candidates on the O-line. NIU was 105th in EPA per rush on defense in 2025. 

Furman vs. No. 20 Tennessee

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 3:30 p.m. ET | SEC Network+
• ATS pick: Tennessee -48.5 🟡
• ML pick: Tennessee (98%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 66.5 🟡

This game is somewhat interesting because it will be true freshman QB Faizon Brandon's first start at Tennessee. But even with an 18-year-old behind center, Josh Heupel's offense will cook Furman. The Paladins are ranked 212th on defense by SP+.

Abilene Christian vs. No. 12 Texas Tech

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 7 p.m. ET | FS1
• ATS pick: Texas Tech -42.5 🟡
• ML pick: Texas Tech (98%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 58.5 🟢

Abilene Christian took Texas Tech to overtime back in 2024, but that won't be happening this time in Lubbock. Since then, billionaire Cody Campbell has funded the Red Raiders roster and helped turn them into a CFP contender. Abilene Christian, meanwhile, is coming off a loss to Lamar and ranks 180th on offense by SP+.

Missouri State vs. No. 8 Texas A&M

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
• ATS pick: Texas A&M -41.5 🟢 
• ML pick: Texas A&M (98%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 53.5 🟢

Everything that made Missouri State a bowl team in its first season as an FBS member is pretty much gone. The coaching staff left for Coastal Carolina, and the roster is 128th in returning production (34%). Mike Elko's Texas A&M team is one of the most experienced in the country - 14th in returning production (65%) - and isn't going to play with its CUSA food.

UTEP vs. No. 10 Oklahoma

• Game info: Friday, Sept. 4 | 8 p.m. ET | SEC Network+
• ATS pick: UTEP +41.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Oklahoma (99%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 🟢

Oklahoma's defensive line, led by David Stone and Taylor Wein, will wreck UTEP's inexperienced offensive line. With that said, the Sooners play Michigan in Week 2, and Brent Venables could pull his starters pretty early in this game. If John Mateer and the offensive stars come out mid-third quarter, OU might not score enough to cover.

Ball State vs. No. 1 Ohio State

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 12:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
• ATS pick: Ohio State -50.5 🟡
• ML pick: Ohio State (99%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 🟢

Ball State is set to be one of the worst teams in the MAC this season. And even if I have a soft spot in my heart for their 5-foot-10, 250-pound QB, there's no way Mike Uremovich's team keeps this close. With Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Ohio State should hit the Over on its own against a defense that was ranked 115th by SP+ last season.

Idaho vs. No. 21 Utah

• Game info: Thursday, Sept. 3 | 9 p.m. ET | ESPNU
• ATS pick: Utah -35.5 🟢
• ML pick: Utah (98%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 57.5 🟢

As mentioned in my Idaho vs. Utah prediction, the Utes have a history of handing out beatdowns to small programs - they've beaten five non-FBS teams by an average of 43 points since 2021. And though this is Morgan Scalley's first game as Utah's head coach, he has one of the best QBs in the country to lean on, Devon Dampier.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. No. 25 Missouri

• Game info: Thursday, Sept. 3 | 8 p.m. ET | SEC Network
• ATS pick: Missouri -54.5 🟡 
• ML pick: Missouri (99%) 🟢 
• Over/Under pick: Over 61.5 🟡

Missouri won't have All-American running back Ahmad Hardy for this game as he recovers from an offseason gunshot wound, but Eli Drinkwitz won't need him against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Golden Lions are ranked 333rd by SP+. New Missouri QB Austin Simmons is going to look like a superstar against a Pine-Bluff defense that allowed 33.3 PPG in the FCS last year.

Utah Tech vs. No. 14 BYU

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 8 p.m. ET | ESPN+
• ATS pick: BYU -51.5 🟢
• ML pick: BYU (99%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 61.5 🟡

Utah Tech is one of the worst programs in the FCS. The Trailblazers are 10-47 since 2021 and 3-21 under current head coach Lance Anderson. BYU's run game is going to bludgeon Utah Tech with last year's Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, LJ Martin, and Freshman of the Year, Bear Bachmeier, back in Provo.

Tennessee State vs. No. 3 Georgia

• Game info: Saturday, Sept. 5 | 3 p.m. ET | SEC Network+
• ATS pick: Georgia -47.5 🟢
• ML pick: Georgia (99%) 🟢
• Over/Under pick: Over 54.5 🟡

Listen to Brad Powers when it comes to the Kirby Smart trend of struggling ATS when favored by 38+ points, because Georgia is going to have no trouble blowing out Tennessee State. The Bulldogs are Top 10 nationally in returning production (68%) behind a defense that brings back several All-American candidates. Tennessee State is ranked 391st on offense by SP+.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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