Texas vs Oklahoma   Picks & Props

The Oklahoma offense starts and ends with Isaiah Sategna III. He has 30 targets through four games, which is 19 more than any other Sooner wide receiver, and he'll get plenty of looks as the sole generator of offense.

Prized offseason acquisition Cam Coleman has found the box four times already this season. That's not a fluke: his 6-foot-3 frame, vertical athleticism, and enormous hands make him a prototype red zone threat. 

Oklahoma is an all-time buy-low spot after getting embarrassed by Georgia and previously Michigan. Texas has faced a difficult schedule, but the Sooners have had a bye week to regroup and prepare for their archrival. I’m backing Oklahoma at +7.5, with +7 being my absolute cutoff.

Oklahoma hasn't scored more than 13 points in its last three games, and I like the Under on its team total at 14.5 or better. The Sooners haven't even scored a touchdown in three of Brent Venables four Red River Rivalry Games, and John Mateer might not change that. Last year against Texas, Mateer threw three interceptions, had six turnover-worthy plays, and finished with a 34.6 QBR.

These two teams are a combined 6-2 to the Under this season, and I like the Under in Red River this year at 38.5 or better. Oklahoma is averaging 12.3 PPG in its last three games, and Texas' defense ranks No. 3 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play.

Oklahoma's offense is a mess, which is why I would take Texas up to -9.5. John Mateer's QBR was below 55 in two Power Four games against Michigan (52) and Georgia (44.4). The Sooners won't score enough against a Longhorns defense that's 11th in success rate (36.5%) to cover. 

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer ranks just No. 68 in QBR and has eight turnover-worthy plays this season (12th most nationally). I don’t expect him to suddenly play clean football against a Texas defense that ranks No. 16 in Havoc.

Finally, I don’t hold Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian in as high regard as most. However, I think he's far superior to Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables. This has played out on the field, with Texas winning 23-6, 34-3, and 49-0 in three of the four meetings between the two coaches.

This line is begging me to take the points, but I can't do it. Oklahoma's offense was held to just 258 yards on 3.7 yards per play in last year's Red River Rivalry, and that offense may actually be worse this season, scoring just 12.3 points per game over its last three games and ranking 105th in total offense for the season. Texas has won the last two editions by a 57-6 combined scoreline and will make it three straight convincing wins on Saturday.