One of college football's top rivalries returns with Oklahoma and Texas meeting at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) for the 122nd time since 1900.
The Longhorns are 9.5-point favorites, and my Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions and college football picks are backing Steve Sarkisian to win his fourth Red River Rivalry in the last five seasons.
Texas vs Oklahoma predictions
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Early Texas vs Oklahoma spread pick: Texas -9.5
While 9.5 points is a lot to cover for Texas in a rivalry game, the Longhorns have won three of the last four Red River Rivalry games by double digits. And with Oklahoma's offense a complete mess, I like Texas to do it again and cover -9.5 or better.
This year's Red River Rivalry should play out similarly to last season's, with both head coaches (Steve Sarkisian, Brent Venables) and starting QBs (Arch Manning, John Mateer) back. In last season's matchup, unranked Texas beat No. 6 Oklahoma, 23-6, and Mateer was the biggest issue.
The Sooners compiled just 258 total yards while Mateer threw three interceptions, had six turnover-worthy plays, and finished with a 34.6 QBR. This year's Texas defense is even better, ranking No. 3 in net adjusted EPA per play, No. 11 in success rate (36.5%), and No. 16 in havoc rate (20.6%).
Oklahoma's offense is worse this year, too, because of Mateer. The Sooners are 112th in available yards percentage (37.4%), and Mateer ranks in the Top 10 in turnover-worthy play rate (6%). OU won't score enough to cover.
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Early Texas vs Oklahoma total pick: Under 39.5
These are two of the top defenses in college football and two inconsistent offenses, and with the additional pressure of a massive rivalry game, I like the Under at 37.5 or better.
The Longhorns and Sooners are a combined 6-2 to the Under this season, and recent Texas vs. Oklahoma rivalry history has been kind to Under bettors (3-1 since 2022). OU's a perfect Under team, ranking last in the SEC in offensive success rate (39.2%) and 12th in the country in havoc rate (21.6%).
The key to the Under will be Oklahoma's defense slowing Arch Manning and Texas' offense. But the Longhorns haven't had all that much offensive success this season, ranking 79th in net EPA per play.
In two games against Power Four opponents, Texas has scored 44 total points, and Manning has just one touchdown vs. two interceptions in those games. He finished with a 53.9 QBR against a Tennessee defense ranked No. 20 by SP+ ... OU is ranked No. 6.
Texas vs Oklahoma odds
- Texas vs Oklahoma spread: Texas -9.5
- Texas vs Oklahoma moneyline: Texas 75%, Oklahoma 25%
- Texas vs Oklahoma Over/Under: 39.5
How to watch Texas vs Oklahoma
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Dallas, Texas
- Venue: Cotton Bowl
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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