Oregon takes on USC at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in L.A., tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. The Ducks will do so as a 2.5-point road favorite, with a total of 61.5 under the lights.
The Ducks are 2.5-point favorites, and my Oregon vs. USC prediction and college football picks are projecting Dan Lanning's team to fly high on offense to pull out a high-scoring road win.
Who will win Oregon vs USC tonight? Oregon -2.5
If recent Oregon vs. USC rivalry history is any indicator, the Ducks will win on the road against the Trojans. Oregon has won six of its last seven matchups against USC, including four straight.
Two of those wins came against Lincoln Riley, with his program allowing 78 points across those losses. His defense remains a major issue, and it's the biggest reason I like Oregon at -3.5 or better. USC is 1-3 ATS with a defense that ranks 90th in EPA per pass, 107th in EPA per rush, and fourth-worst in the Big Ten in havoc rate (13.5%).
Dante Moore is top 10 in the country in TD passes (9) and is expected to have star tight end Jamari Johnson back for this game. Those two, along with the Ducks' leading receiver Evan Stewart, should torch a Trojans defense in one of the must-watch matchups of my college football Top 25 predictions.
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TOP PICK
Oregon vs USC Over/Under pick: Over 61.5
After years of struggling defenses under Lincoln Riley, USC might have its worst one yet with Gary Patterson running the show. Patterson, who hadn't called a defense since being fired at TCU in 2021, hasn't fixed anything in L.A., which is why I'd play the Over at 63.5 or better.
Last week, the Trojans allowed 460 yards and 35 points to a Rutgers offense that scored just 21 points against UMass. The Scarlet Knights offense ranks outside the Top 50 by SP+, while Oregon's ranks sixth.
However, the Trojans continue to make up for their defense with a top-notch offense. QB Jayden Maiava is top 10 in QBR (87.5), and USC is top 10 in both net adjusted EPA per play and offensive success rate (66.2%).
The Over has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings between the Ducks and Trojans.
COVERS INTEL: USC's defense ranks 110th in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and 103rd in defensive success rate, which is why I'm expecting a shootout win for Oregon.
Oregon vs USC combo
Oregon should win this game outright because it's more well-rounded and has more proven playmakers (USC is also expected to be without freshman phenom receiver Trent Mosley).
But Oregon's defense has underwhelmed, too, and sits 14th in the Big Ten in havoc rate (15.1%). With one of the country's top QBs in Maiava, the Trojans rank second nationally in available yards percentage (75.8%). USC should be able to score at least 31 points against the Ducks.
I have Oregon winning 41-37.
Oregon vs USC combo
- Oregon moneyline
- Over 61.5
- USC team total Over 29.5
Oregon vs USC prop: Oregon team total Over 30.5
Oregon's offense has scored 31+ points in all three games this season, and Moore remains a top QB in the country.
With Johnson expected to return, Oregon has a seam threat who should open up the passing game against a Trojans defense ranked 91st in defensive success against the pass (48.2%).
The Ducks have the firepower and competent QB play to do more damage to USC than both Louisiana and Rutgers did ... I think they'll approach 40+ points and would take the Over on their team total up to 33.5.
In Dan Lanning's two previous games against Riley, his team scored 36 and 42 points.
- Top picks: 8-6, +1.08 units
- Combos: 3-11, -1.67 units
Oregon vs USC odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Oregon -2.5 | USC +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 61.5 (51%) | Under 61.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Oregon 59% | USC 41%
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Oregon vs USC weather
The weather in Los Angeles on Saturday night should be perfect for scoring, with the forecast calling for a clear evening.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Oregon vs USC trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in USC's last seven games as a home underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs. USC.
How to watch Oregon vs USC
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Oregon vs USC latest injuries
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