Oregon vs USC   Picks & Props

USC's defense is a massive problem. It allowed 35 points and 460 yards to a Rutgers team that scored just 21 points in losses to UMass and Boston College. Oregon has scored 31 points in all three games, and its offense ranks sixth in SP+. However, the Ducks' defense has struggled (14th in the Big Ten in havoc rate), and Jayden Maiava and the USC offense should shine against it. The Trojans are second nationally in available yards percentage (75.8%). I would play the Over at 63.5 or better.

USC has played three Group of Six teams and a Rutgers program that lost to UMass. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS and allowed Rutgers to hang around last week because their defense couldn't stop the Scarlet Knights. Even with Oregon losing to Oklahoma State and dealing with injuries, the Ducks should score 35+ points against USC. Gary Patterson's defense is ranked 107th in EPA per rush and 90th in EPA per pass. Dante Moore and Co. just had a get-right game against Portland State (84-0 win) and can win a shootout with the Trojans. 

I know, I know. Any and all notes about Oregon's early-season struggles are taken and considered, but I have simply not seen anything to consider trusting USC's defense against a team with this much talent. The Trojans just gave up 460 yards on 6.7 yards per play to Rutgers, and that's only an appetizer for what an angry Dan Lanning will have in store for them this weekend. It's an unexpected watershed moment for the Ducks, and I suspect they'll answer the call. 

I trust Oregon more in this type of spot which is pretty much a playoff elimination game and the Ducks can't afford a loss. I make this spread three and Oregon has some statistical advantages, notably yards per play. I'm not buying this USC team, especially the so-called improvements they made on defense. They easily could've lost outright to Rutgers if not for a 99-yard pick-six.