Easily the game of the week for this writer, as this is the second time I’m writing about this massive matchup following the Ole Miss win over LSU a week ago. Will the Gators be geared up to rain on the Rebels' parade?
Without wasting any more time, here are my Ole Miss vs. Florida prop picks, including why the Gators will likely lean on the run game on Saturday.
Before you start scrolling through all the filth, be sure to check out all the plays our team is on this weekend, along with my college football picks for Week 4. Our Chris Hatfield covers this game in full with his Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction.
Best Ole Miss vs Florida props
Prop pick #1: Jordan Baugh Over 118.5 rush yards
The Florida Gators have leaned pretty heavily on the run game out of the gate this season, with nearly 65% of their plays coming on the ground. Not only do I like Florida running back Jordan Baugh to surpass 118.5 rushing yards on Saturday against the Ole Miss Rebels, but so do our player prop projections here at Covers, which have the junior back projected for 125 yards.
Through just three games this season, the Rebels' defense has allowed opponents to rush for nearly 160 yards per game. Baugh leads the team with 54 rushing attempts, while his backup, Duke Clark, has 20 and quarterback Aaron Philo has 18. Those three make up the majority of the team's rushing attempts this season.
With Baugh getting the majority of the carries, he should have plenty of opportunities to find open grass against an Ole Miss defense that has struggled to stop the run. Even with this being the toughest defensive unit Baugh has faced this season, 119 yards feels very doable. He has surpassed this prop in every game this season, by an average of 33 yards, while averaging just 18 carries per game.
Take this up to 120.5 yards.
Prop pick #2: Trinidad Chambliss Over 287.5 pass yards
Despite believing this will be a mega letdown spot for the Rebels, this is still a great spot for Trinidad Chambliss to sling the pill and add to his Heisman stock. This Florida defense has not faced the star power of Chambliss. Yes, Byrum Brown is the closest thing to Chambliss they have faced, and he still threw for 271 yards.
With the likelihood of Ole Miss playing from behind, as the Rebels enter The Swamp as short underdogs, expect them to be throwing the football. The star super senior has thrown for over 300 yards in two of the Rebels’ three games this season. The one game he did not surpass this prop, or 300 yards, was against Charlotte in Week 2, when the Rebels won 41-9.
Florida’s first three opponents to open the 2026 season have been FAU, Campbell, and Auburn, yet the Gators still rank 111th in opponent pass yards per game.
If you’re feeling dangerous, ladder this to 300+.
Prop pick #3: Aaron Philo Under 236.5 pass yards
It has already been established that the Gators are more ground attack than air raid out of the gate this season, which is why we are leaning Under on Aaron Philo’s passing yards on Saturday. Not only that, Ole Miss has done a great job of holding down the air attack. Its only bad game came against Louisville, when it allowed over 300 yards through the air. Since then, the Rebels have allowed a combined 337 passing yards.
The junior quarterback has gone over this number in two of his three starts this season, but those came against FAU and Campbell. Against Auburn last week, he was held to just 204 yards. If this offense is going to rely heavily on the legs of Jordan Baugh, take the Under on Philo’s passing yards.
- Prop picks: 2-2, +0.70 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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