In Iowa's first College GameDay game in 20 years, the Hawkeyes host Ohio State at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS).
The Buckeyes are 14.5-point favorites, and my Ohio State vs. Iowa combos and college football picks expect Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith to lead their team to a decisive victory.
Best Ohio State vs Iowa combos
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Ohio State vs Iowa combo
Iowa has had trouble against Ryan Day's offense in recent years, which is why I'm all over the Buckeyes in my Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction. In Ohio State's previous two games against Iowa, its offense has averaged 44.5 points and covered the spread by double digits in both matchups.
Last week, despite a dramatic last-second win and only allowing 19 points to Michigan, the Hawkeyes' defense struggled. Wolverines QB Bryce Underwood had arguably the best game of his career against Iowa (10.3% big-time throw rate and zero turnover-worthy plays) and led two drives inside the Hawkeyes' red zone that came away with zero points.
This Ohio State offense has no issues finishing drives, ranking No. 7 in offensive success rate (52.4%) and No. 13 in points per opportunity (5.11). And Julian Sayin is a far more consistent passer than Underwood.
Sayin is No. 2 in the country in QBR (92.8) and has the Buckeyes ranked No. 4 in EPA per pass and No. 3 in pass success rate (60.9%). That's a problem for an Iowa defense that's just 66th in EPA per pass.
I'm expecting a slow start from the Buckeyes in front of a loud crowd in Kinnick Stadium, with Day's squad pulling away in a big way in the fourth quarter.
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Ohio State vs Iowa player prop combos
Sayin is one of the most efficient QBs in college football with a career 80.8% adjusted completion rate and just a 1.2% turnover-worthy play rate. In his 18 starts, he's thrown 42 touchdown passes, including 2+ in 12 of his last 15 regular season starts.
Iowa allowed two touchdown passes last week to Underwood, who isn't even ranked in the top 50 in QBR this season (63.5) and doesn't have the same talent around him as Sayin. As always, the biggest difference maker for Sayin against Iowa will be Heisman Trophy odds-favorite Jeremiah Smith.
Smith is the best player in college football, and in just 12 quarters this season he has 617 receiving yards, the most in the country, and has surpassed 150 receiving yards in three of four games (he played just two quarters against Kent State and had 85 yards).
Iowa doesn't have the secondary to stop Smith, who's averaging the highest yards per route run nationally among players with 20+ targets (5.51). If Iowa is going to keep up with Smith, it will need to go to the air because its run game is so inefficient, 120th in rush success rate (36%).
But with one of Ohio State's biggest strengths being its cornerback corps, Hank Brown will likely lean on his tight ends. With DJ Vonnahme expected to see more attention, it should open things up for Addison Ostrenga, who's coming off one of the best games of his career (36 receiving yards).
- Combos: 4-13, -1.64 units
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