Ohio State looks to spoil Iowa’s College GameDay celebration when the Big Ten rivals meet at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City today at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
The Buckeyes enter as 14.5-point road favorites, and I’m having a hard time fading them at that number with my Top Pick.
My Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction and college football picks expect Ryan Day's offense to expose an overrated Hawkeyes team.
TOP PICK
Who will win Ohio State vs Iowa today? Pick: Ohio State -14.5
This is Ryan Day's third time leading Ohio State against Iowa since taking over the Buckeyes in 2019. In the previous two matchups, the Buckeyes beat the Hawkeyes 54-10 as a 30-point favorite and 35-7 as a 17.5-point favorite.
Another Ohio State blowout is brewing in a huge letdown spot for Iowa (I like the Buckeyes to cover -14.5 or better).
While the Hawkeyes are coming off a last-second win over Michigan and have College GameDay in town for the first time in 20 years, their win over the Wolverines is misleading.
Bryce Underwood had one of the best games of his career against Iowa (three big-time throws, zero turnover-worthy plays), and if Michigan hadn't come away with no points on two drives that ended inside Iowa's 20, the Wolverines would have won.
Ohio State has no trouble finishing drives, ranking No. 13 nationally in points per opportunity (5.11) and No. 7 in offensive success rate (52.4%).
COVERS INTEL: Since 2023, Ohio State is 11-2-1 ATS when favored by fewer than 20 points in the regular season, according to our Joe Osborne.
Ohio State vs Iowa Over/Under pick: Over 45.5
The Buckeyes are poised to handle the bulk of the scoring for this Over to hit, and I'd play it up to 48.5.
Iowa's pass defense has struggled uncharacteristically this season, ranking 66th in EPA per pass and 38th in pass success rate (41%), and it just got torched by Underwood (72.7 QBR against Iowa).
That's going to be a massive problem against an Ohio State aerial assault that's among the best in college football.
Led by Julian Sayin (his 92.8 QBR is No. 2 in the country) and Heisman Trophy odds-favorite Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State ranks fourth nationally in EPA per pass and third in pass success rate (60.9%).
Ohio State vs Iowa combo
Iowa will need to score to keep this game close, but I'm not sure Hank Brown can lead the Hawkeyes to more than 17 points. The Buckeyes have one of the best secondaries in the country and rank third nationally in pass-rush success rate (30.7%).
Ohio State is more susceptible to the ground attack, but the Hawkeyes have been inefficient running the ball, ranking 120th in rush success rate (36%).
A slow start in front of a rambunctious Kinnick Stadium crowd should turn into a second-half Buckeyes blowout in the No. 2 must-watch game in my college football Top 25 predictions.
Ohio State vs Iowa combo
- Ohio State -14.5
- Ohio State Team Total Over 30.5
- Ohio State 4th quarter -2.5
Ohio State vs Iowa prop: Ohio State Team Total Over 30.5
Ohio State has scored 31+ points in 12 of Sayin's 18 career starts, and this year's passing attack looks even better than last year's, with Smith somehow taking his game up a notch.
The Buckeyes are No. 24 nationally in offensive explosiveness (1.342), and Smith averages the highest yards per route run in the country among players with 20+ targets (5.51).
Of his 33 catches, 31 have gone for a first down or a touchdown.
He's an impossible matchup for Iowa and should open things up for the rest of Ohio State's blue-chip playmakers. I would take the Over on Ohio State's team total up to 32.5.
- Top picks: 10-7, +1.88 units
- Combos: 4-13, -1.64 units
Ohio State vs Iowa market trends
The widget below will track the smart money and overall trading volume from trusted Kalshi traders as the market heats up through the day. Expect the smart money to come in closest to kickoff. Use the splits to help inform your Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction.
Ohio State vs Iowa odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Ohio State -14.5 | Iowa +14.5
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (51%) | Under 45.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Ohio State 84% | Iowa 16%
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Ohio State vs Iowa weather
Weather isn't expected to affect the game in Iowa City.
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Ohio State vs Iowa trend to know
Ohio State is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs. Iowa.
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How to watch Ohio State vs Iowa
| Location | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Ohio State vs Iowa latest injuries
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