Our Michigan vs. Minnesota expert picks break down the best betting angles for today's Big Ten rivalry matchup.
See where the market sits for this Little Brown Jug battle and check out our latest college football picks for more Week 5 coverage.
Michigan vs Minnesota expert picks
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Michigan -5.5 |
52% |
 Rob Paul: Michigan -5.5 |
52% |
 Chris Vasile: Under 43.5 |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Michigan -5.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
My power ratings made Michigan a 6-point favorite here. This feels like a great "Buy Low, Sell High" opportunity. Michigan lost on a “Hail Mary” to Iowa last week.
However, Michigan dominated with a 429-285 yard edge and were +1.5 in yards per play margin. The adjusted box score had Michigan winning by 12 so I didn't downgrade the Wolverines in my power ratings.
Meanwhile, I'm selling a Minnesota team fresh off an upset at Washington as 12-point underdogs.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Michigan -5.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
The Michigan Wolverines have won the Little Brown Jug in 44 of the past 48 matchups against Minnesota. PJ Fleck has accounted for four of those losses, and has yet to take home the rivalry trophy during his tenure leading the Golden Gophers.
In Fleck's four games against Michigan, Minnesota is 1-3 ATS, losing by an average score of 40.2-17. And while the Wolverines are coming off a last-second loss to Iowa, it was one of the best performances of Bryce Underwood's career (three big-time throws, zero turnover-worthy plays).
Underwood should only need to lead a handful of scoring drives for Michigan to cover, with its defense allowing just 14.8 PPG this season and ranking eighth in EPA per rush, 24th in EPA per pass, and 16th in available yards percentage (33.6%).
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Under 43.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
Neither offense has an easy path here.
Michigan has struggled to score against better competition, while Minnesota’s defense has been strong against the run and good at creating negative plays.
The Gophers should have problems of their own against a Michigan front that can take away the ground game and force long drives. This feels like a field-position game with both teams grinding for points.
How to watch Michigan vs Minnesota
| Location | Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | Noon ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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