The Chicago Bears are a 52% road favorite in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
With Caleb Williams' status uncertain and Atlanta possessing the better offense, my Bears vs. Falcons predictions are backing the hosts.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 18.
TOP Pick
Bears vs Falcons prediction: Falcons moneyline
Play up to 55%.
The Atlanta Falcons should have Michael Penix Jr. back under center Sunday after he exited Week 5 with a rib injury. Penix has practiced fully this week, and Atlanta has averaged 34.3 points per game across his three starts.
The Falcons have also leaned on an excellent rushing attack, ranking second in the NFL with Bijan Robinson leading the league at 580 yards.
Caleb Williams has practiced this week but still hasn't been cleared from the hamstring tear that sidelined him for three games. Even if he returns, Williams could be somewhat limited.
The Chicago Bears are also missing key defensive pieces in T.J. Edwards and Montez Sweat. With Penix trending toward a return and Atlanta's ground game rolling, I prefer the Falcons at 49%.
COVERS INTEL: Atlanta’s defensive front owns a 44.3% pressure rate, third-highest in the NFL, while generating pressure on 44.5% of dropbacks without blitzing. That consistent disruption gives the Falcons a defensive edge against Chicago.
Bears vs Falcons combo
I'm targeting a Falcons victory at home, but I also I’m leaning Under 53.5 with both quarterbacks carrying some injury-related uncertainty and Atlanta likely leaning heavily on Robinson and the ground game. That should help shorten the contest, while Chicago’s offense may also be more conservative if Williams returns at less than 100%.
If Tyson Bagent does start, that strengthens the under narrative immensely, as he's yet to throw for a touchdown in 64 pass attempts.
I'll round out this combo with Kyle Pitts Sr. to make just three catches. Chicago is allowing 3.6 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, while Pitts has caught eight passes over his last two contests. With his target volume also trending upward, he has a reasonable path to three grabs.
Bears vs Falcons combo
- Falcons moneyline
- Under 53.5
- Kyle Pitts Sr. Over 2.5 receptions
Bears vs Falcons touchdown scorer: Brian Robinson Jr.
Play up to 35%.
I'm looking to Bijan's backfield partner, Brian Robinson Jr., to find paydirt on Sunday. The former Alabama standout has already rushed for four touchdowns this season on only 51 carries, showing just how efficient he's been in scoring situations.
Those four scores came on only five red-zone carries, and while that touchdown rate is obviously unsustainable, it also shows Atlanta is willing to use Robinson near the goal line. With Chicago missing key pieces up front and the Falcons expected to lean on the run, Robinson should have another chance to cash in from close range.
- Top picks: 2-5, -2.08 units
- Combos: 0-5, -5.00
Bears vs Falcons odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bears -1.5 (48%) | Falcons +1.5 (53%)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (46%) | Under 53.5 (55%)
- Moneyline: Bears 52% | Falcons 49%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Bears vs Falcons weather
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is a dome, so weather won't play a factor.
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Bears vs Falcons trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Bears' last 4 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Falcons.
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How to watch Bears vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Bears vs Falcons latest injuries
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