With Jayson Tatum ruled out and Payton Pritchard questionable, my Bucks vs. Celtics prediction backs Milwaukee to keep things close against a Boston team favored by 9.5 points.
The game tips off Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden, with the 221.5-point total setting the stage for Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s scoring and Paul George's rebounding props.
For more angles across Wednesday's slate, check out our latest NBA picks.
TOP PICK
Bucks vs Celtics prediction: Bucks +10.5
I'm following the line movement and taking the Milwaukee Bucks +10.5, down to +9.5.
The Boston Celtics opened as 14.5-point favorites, but that line has dropped significantly because Jayson Tatum has been ruled out, while point guard Payton Pritchard remains questionable. Tatum and Pritchard are two of Boston's three best shot creators.
Tatum is getting a scheduled rest night after playing both ends of a Sunday-Monday back-to-back, a precaution that makes sense given his recent Achilles recovery.
Pritchard also injured his shooting shoulder while diving for a loose ball Sunday and has gone 0-for-12 from three in the two games since.
With the Celtics beginning a four-game road trip after Wednesday, I'm banking on them using this opportunity to give both Tatum and Pritchard the night off.
COVERS INTEL: Milwaukee ranks eighth in offensive rebounding rate, while the Celtics rank 27th in defensive rebounding rate. With Tatum off the floor, Boston's defensive rebounding rate drops by 9.0%, per CleaningTheGlass.com.
Bucks vs Celtics combo
I'm only risking 0.25u on these combos, and I like the way this game could open up if Boston is missing some of its usual firepower.
I just need the Bucks to keep this competitive enough for the starters to stay involved deep into the fourth quarter. That matters for Milwaukee wing Jaime Jaquez Jr., who should keep getting chances to score, and Paul George, who can pile up rebounds simply by staying on the floor in a close game.
The whole thing works better if Boston never creates separation. Give me Milwaukee hanging around, both rotations staying intact, and enough possessions for Jaquez and PG to hit their marks.
Bucks vs Celtics combo
- Milwaukee +10.5
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. 15+ points
- Paul George 6+ rebounds
Bucks vs Celtics player props
Bucks player prop: Jaime Jaquez Jr. 15+ points
Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s 15+ points prop is tradable up to 53%.
Jaquez has scored at least 19 points in five of his seven games, and he averages the second-most minutes per game on the team. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, he's averaging a career-best points-per-shot-attempt mark so far this season.
Plus, Jaquez can score from anywhere on the floor. He has the second-highest field goal attempt rate at the rim on the Bucks, ranks second on the team in free-throw attempts per game, and is shooting a career-best 44.0% from 3-point range.
Meanwhile, Jaquez should have an easier time getting buckets with Tatum, an excellent defensive wing, sidelined.
Celtics player prop: Paul George 6+ rebounds
I love Paul George's 6+ rebounds prop up to 50%.
PG has grabbed at least six boards in four of his six games this season, and there will be more rebounding opportunities with Tatum out. Boston's rebounding rates improve on both ends of the floor with George in the game, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
The matchup helps, too. Milwaukee has the eighth-highest 3-point attempt rate in the NBA, which should create plenty of opportunities for long rebounds.
George spends enough time both on the perimeter and around the paint to clean those up. With Tatum out and Milwaukee likely to keep firing from deep, six rebounds feels very reachable.
- Top picks: 7-5, +1.95 units
- Combos: 0-12, -9.00 units
- Props: 9-12-1, -2.80 units
Bucks vs Celtics odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bucks +10.5 | Celtics -10.5
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
- Moneyline: Bucks 21% | Celtics 80%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Bucks vs Celtics trend
Boston is 1-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite so far this season. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Bucks vs Celtics
| Location | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | WCGV, NBC Sports Boston |
Bucks vs Celtics latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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