Jack Quinn has developed into an offensive force for the Buffalo Sabres (54%).
Favored against an Ottawa team struggling to get saves, I'm backing Quinn to find the scoresheet with my Senators vs. Sabres prediction.
Let's take a closer look at my NHL picks for Wednesday, Nov. 4.
Senators vs Sabres prediction: Buffalo Sabres moneyline
The Buffalo Sabres are a moneyline target to 58%.
A lot of this comes down to goaltending. I simply don’t trust the Ottawa Senators without Linus Ullmark between the pipes, and it doesn’t appear he’s quite ready to return.
Ottawa is 2-5-1 without Ullmark and a putrid .863 team save percentage is a big reason why.
Sam Ersson is likely to start after Jonas Johansson conceded six last time out. He ranks 49th among 55 eligible goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes, coming in at -0.80.
Buffalo has scored 3+ in seven of the last nine, and should fill the net against Ersson.
COVERS INTEL: Quinn leads the Sabres with a 69 xGF% across all situations over the last 10 games.
Senators vs Sabres combo
Jack Quinn has 10 points over his last seven games and has established himself as one of the top weapons on the Sabres.
He hit the scoresheet in six of seven games Buffalo has been favored in this year, and that’s the case tonight at home to Ottawa.
Dylan Cozens is averaging 8.08 shots on goal per 60 with Tim Stutzle on his line, and is a focal point on the power play.
He recorded 3+ shots in two of three meetings with his former team last season, and will need to push for offense to try and compensate for what Ersson gives up.
Senators vs Sabres combo
- Buffalo Sabres moneyline
- Jack Quinn Over 0.5 points
- Dylan Cozens Over 2.5 shots
TOP PICK
Senators vs Sabres player prop: Jack Quinn Over 0.5 points
I like Quinn for a point up to 63%.
He is skating on a line with Noah Ostlund and Zach Benson, and that trio has run opponents over.
The Sabres are controlling 66.1% of the xG share with that unit on the ice. That’s good for ninth among 70 lines that have spent at least 60 minutes together.
Quinn also skates on the top power play unit and has exposure to stars like Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, increasing his offensive ceiling.
Quinn has points in seven of 10 games since his line was assembled, and he’s as likely as anybody to take advantage of Ottawa’s struggling netminders.
Senators vs Sabres goal scorer: Tage Thompson
Tage Thompson is worth a play to 46%.
This one is pretty cut and dry. Thompson is a high-volume shooter and an elite finisher who has scored on 14.7% of his shots or more in five of the past six seasons.
He’s a difficult player for any goaltender to stop. The absence of Ullmark, who was playing at a Vezina-caliber level prior to his injury, certainly helps the chances of Thompson finding the net.
Ersson owns a career Goals Saved Above Expected total of -51.5 through 150 career games, and is much more likely to give up goals he shouldn’t than shave goals off the board.
- Top picks: 19-21, -5.68 units
- Combos: 7-33, -6.37 units
Senators vs Sabres odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Senators 47% | Sabres 54%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (52%) | Under 6.5 (49%)
- Spread: Senators +1.5 (68%) | Sabres -1.5 (33%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Senators vs Sabres trend
Buffalo has won six of the last seven games against Ottawa. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Senators vs Sabres
| Location | KeyBank Center, Buffalo |
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | PRIME, ESPN+ |
Senators vs Sabres latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
