North Carolina and Duke renew their rivalry Saturday afternoon.
Even though their biggest aspirations are out of reach, both teams have incentives to fight for. UNC must win its final two games to qualify for a bowl, whereas Duke can secure eligibility with just one more win.
With stakes this high, fans should expect a thrilling game.
I break down the matchup in my Duke vs. North Carolina predictions & college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Duke vs North Carolina prediction
Duke vs North Carolina best bet: Gio Lopez Over 191.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Three weeks ago, we backed an improving Gio Lopez to go over his passing yardage in a similar spot. It cashed quite easily, aided by a favorable game script. Despite that, we still have a similar passing total for the quarterback. I’ll be backing it again.
Lopez has now thrown for over 200 passing yards for four straight games. So why is his passing yardage remaining this low this week against one of the worst passing defenses he’s faced in that stretch? Quite frankly, I’m not sure.
The Duke Blue Devils have remained near the bottom of college football nearly all season in EPA allowed per dropback. Coming into this matchup, they find themselves in the 122nd spot in such metrics. I think Lopez can exploit that.
That belief is made stronger when you throw in the fact that the North Carolina Tar Heels will likely find themselves trailing through a good portion of this matchup.
Despite all of the outside noise, this Tar Heels team has improved this season and much of that has come on the defensive side of the ball.
That said, they are still exploitable in this matchup, particularly on the ground where Duke has been efficient and North Carolina has given up a boatload of plays.
I think Lopez can cash this number with a normal game script, but the fact that North Carolina should have to chase points clears it for best bet status. I would play this to 199.5.
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Duke vs North Carolina same-game parlay
I’m taking North Carolina to grab a cover in a game that is essentially the Tar Heels season against a defense with so many issues.
I’m going to pair that with Nate Sheppard to go over his rushing yardage. A leading script for North Carolina is helpful but even without that, the Tar Heels rushing defense has been a struggle point all season.
Duke vs North Carolina SGP
- Gio Lopez Over 191.5 passing yards
- North Carolina +6.5
- Nate Sheppard Over 64.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Lopez, Sheppard find paydirt
This is more or less a double down of my same-game parlay. I don’t expect Duke to put the ball in the air much when in scoring situations which gives Sheppard increased volume and value.
Within the same token, I suspect that Lopez will be able to find some success downfield against a poor passing defense in a game that North Carolina must chase points in.
Duke vs North Carolina SGP
- Gio Lopez Over 191.5 passing yards
- North Carolina +6.5
- Nate Sheppard Over 64.5 rushing yards
- Gio Lopez Over 1.5 touchdowns
- Nate Sheppard anytime touchdown
Duke vs North Carolina game predictions
Duke vs North Carolina moneyline prediction
It’s not a strong opinion but I think Duke’s edge at Quarterback is the decider here.
Duke vs North Carolina spread prediction
The Duke defense isn’t good enough to win this game by a touchdown.
Duke vs North Carolina Over/Under prediction
My projection for this game is right on the market but if forced to choose, I’ll lean Over with two obvious areas the offenses can expose.
Duke vs North Carolina odds
- Spread: Duke -6.5 (-120) | North Carolina +6.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Duke -245 | North Carolina +200
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
Duke vs North Carolina trend to know
Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs North Carolina.
How to watch Duke vs North Carolina
| Location | Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date | Saturday, November 22, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ACCN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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