Saturday’s slate features several ranked matchups, and our college football touchdown picks blend current production with established EPA metrics instead of overreacting to three games.
The card includes two quarterbacks, two plus-money pass-catchers and a Tennessee running back with strong efficiency numbers.
Here are our top college football picks & Week 4 plays.
Best Week 4 college football anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Deuce Alexander |
|
 John Mateer |
|
 Donovan Olugbode |
|
 Bryce Underwood |
|
 Daune Morris |
Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Deuce Alexander anytime touchdown
Deuce Alexander is the best blend of role and price on this board.
He has already shown a ceiling that this price does not fully account for catching five passes for 159 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, then adding a touchdown and 74 yards on 10 targets against the LSU Tigers.
The metrics credited him with 0.47 EPA per play in the SEC win, while the Ole Miss Rebels carried a +0.24 adjusted EPA/play profile that ranked seventh nationally in the matchup priors.
The Florida Gators pass-defense success rate ranks 96th. That is the matchup to attack: Trinidad Chambliss should have enough efficiency to create one scoring chance for Alexander.
This matchup also feels like a shootout.
- Matchup: Ole Miss vs. Florida
- Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida
- TV: ABC
Pick #2: John Mateer anytime touchdown
Personally, I’m fading John Mateer through the air and fading the Oklahoma Sooners as a team, but the Boomer’s offense has been so poor that his rushing ability is the clearest route to a touchdown.
He carried 10 times for 76 yards against the Michigan Wolverines and generated 0.31 EPA per rush with a 60% success rate. The current team profile credits him with 0.77 EPA per play and three touchdown passes, but those passing numbers do not make me want to back him as a thrower against the Georgia Bulldogs.
The matchup is difficult, and Georgia’s established profile ranks 13th in adjusted EPA/play. Mateer must use designed runs and scrambles to find the end zone.
- Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Georgia
- Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Dooley Field at Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
- TV: ESPN
Pick #3: Donovan Olugbode anytime touchdown
Donovan Olugbode has the clearest recent touchdown role among Missouri Tigers receivers, and the 47% ProphetX probability remains playable.
He scored in each of Missouri's last two games. Against the Kansas Jayhawks, the metrics credited him with six catches on nine targets for 121 yards and a 1.03 EPA per play; he followed that with a touchdown on three catches against the Troy Trojans.
The Troy game was quieter overall for Missouri’s passing game, but Olugbode still won a high-value red-zone opportunity. The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense should keep this game competitive enough for Missouri to continue throwing rather than simply salt away a lead.
His recent end-zone role and explosive EPA profile justify the probability.
- Matchup: Missouri vs. Mississippi State
- Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 25 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
- TV: SEC Network
Pick #4: Bryce Underwood anytime touchdown
I'll back Bryce Underwood because his legs remain part of the offense’s most reliable scoring package.
The Michigan Wolverines have 11 offensive touchdowns through three games, with six different players scoring, but Underwood is one of three Wolverines with two rushing scores. He ran for a touchdown against Oklahoma and added another one the game before that, giving him multiple paths to finish a drive.
The Iowa Hawkeyes can reduce explosive plays, which makes quarterback keepers and goal-line reads more important. I think this number as short because much like with the Oklahoma's matchup, the offense has struggled, faces a strong defense and will increase the volume of their QB runs because of that.
- Matchup: Michigan vs. Iowa
- Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 25 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
- TV: CBS
Pick #5: Daune Morris anytime touchdown
Daune Morris has scored in consecutive games and has been one of the Tennessee Volunteers most efficient ball carriers this season.
He produced a 0.74 EPA per rush on 10 carries against the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets, then followed with 116 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against Kennesaw State while generating 0.59 EPA per rush.
Morris has totaled 214 yards and two touchdowns across those games, showing both explosive-play ability and a reliable workload.
The Texas Longhorns present a more difficult challenge, but Tennessee’s offense has continued to give Morris meaningful opportunities near the goal line.
- Matchup: Tennessee vs. Texas
- Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 26 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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