The Friday college football slate starts early with a 4 p.m. ET kickoff between Army and Temple, and four more games follow that, including one featuring the reigning national champions.
The best game in my Week 4 Friday night football picks is far and away Clemson vs. California in ACC after dark action, especially with my college football picks expecting a few blowouts between the first and last game of the day.
Week 4 Friday night college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Armyvs  Temple |
⬆️ o48.5 | 49% |
 Howardvs  Rutgers |
-42.5 |
53% |
 Navyvs  UAB |
-6.5 |
52% |
 Northwesternvs  Indiana |
-20.5 |
52% |
 Clemsonvs  California |
+1.5 |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Friday night picks this week
Army vs Temple: ⬆️ Over 48.5
There's no better way to kick off the weekend than with a high-scoring matchup on a Friday afternoon. That's what Army and Temple should provide, with the two being a combined 4-1 against the Over this season.
Temple is coming off a mind-boggling loss to Toledo in which it blew a 42-28 lead with under three minutes left to lose 49-48 in overtime. That flimsy defense is going to be a major concern against an Army triple-option attack that's second nationally in offensive success rate (58.8%) and sixth in EPA per pass.
Luckily for the Owls, the Black Knights' defense is a mess. It ranks outside the top 120 in pretty much every major category, including EPA per pass and EPA per rush. I'm expecting these two to clear the Over with room to breathe, and I'd take it as high as 51.5.
Howard vs Rutgers: Rutgers -42.5
Beyond the fact that Power Four programs have been humiliating FCS teams this year, Rutgers holds some momentum going into this game. Yes, the Scarlet Knights are 0-3, but with Dylan Lonergan back at QB last week, they had USC on upset alert.
Rutgers put up 460 yards and 35 points on the Trojans, thanks to their two potential top-100 picks, wide receiver KJ Duff and running back Antwan Raymond. Those two have combined for 782 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns this season, and they should enjoy a field day against a Howard defense ranked 220th by SP+.
Howard already lost 55-0 to an Indiana team that pulled its starters at halftime. Greg Schiano desperately needs a big win, so he might not even pull his starters if he gets up by 40+ points (Rutgers is the play up to -44.5).
Navy vs UAB: Navy -6.5
For a UAB team that's been showing some improvement under Alex Mortensen, catching Navy now in conference play is a worst-case scenario. The Blazers don't match up well with the Midshipmen at all, as UAB's weaknesses are Navy's strengths.
The most significant problem for UAB will be stopping Navy's triple-option run game. The Midshipmen are second nationally in EPA per rush, eighth in early-down EPA per play, and 11th in offensive success rate (52.9%). The Blazers are allowing 192 rushing yards per game and rank 96th in EPA per rush on defense.
It won't be easy on offense for UAB either, with Mortensen leaning so heavily on the ground game (43.7 rush attempts per game vs. 24.7 pass attempts). Navy allows the second-fewest rushing yards per contest in the country (40.5).
I like Navy up to -8.5.
Northwestern vs Indiana: Indiana -20.5
As I broke down in my college football top 25 predictions, Northwestern's huge win over Colorado was nice, but that came against a defense ranked 72nd by SP+. So, for as fun as Chip Kelly's offense has been so far, it's hard to take much away from its performances.
Indiana's defense is full of NFL talent and ranks 21st nationally in havoc rate (20.7%) and 20th in available yards percentage (34.5%). The Hoosiers have allowed 16 points through four games, and in Aidan Chiles' previous two outings against Curt Cignetti (when he was at Michigan State), he suffered 25- and 37-point losses.
As long as Josh Hoover and Charlie Becker keep the passing game humming (it's No. 2 nationally in EPA per pass) the Hoosiers should cover up to -20.5. Our Geoff Clark is with me in his Northwestern vs. Indiana prediction.
Clemson vs California: California +1.5
California is no stranger to playing after dark. In fact, a lot of the buzz around Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele began on that stage last year. Now JKS is no longer a secret for those who stay up late to enjoy. He's one of the country's best QBs, and Clemson could be in for a rough West Coast trip.
JKS is top-10 nationally in big-time throws (seven), and the talent around him vastly improved this season, with transfers Adam Mohammed, Ian Strong, and Chase Hendricks combining for 823 yards from scrimmage. But Cal's defense is the real X-factor against a Clemson offense that's 122nd in EPA per pass and available yards percentage (31.3%).
The Tigers' passing attack has been sketchy, and freshman Tait Reynolds is 131st nationally in QBR (28.4). Reynolds could struggle against an opportunistic Golden Bears defense that Kingston Lopa leads (five interceptions).
And as Clark pointed out in his Clemson vs. California prediction, this is Clemson's first late-night West Coast ACC game since Cal and Stanford joined the conference. I'd even consider taking Cal to win outright.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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