Alabama looks to win its fourth straight Saban Bowl on the first Saturday in November when the Crimson Tide take on LSU at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Tigers are 5.5-point favorites in Death Valley, and my Alabama vs. LSU prediction and college football picks are backing Lane Kiffin to end the losing streak.
TOP PICK
Who will win Alabama vs LSU: LSU -5.5
The last time LSU won the Saban Bowl, Nick Saban was Alabama's head coach and Lane Kiffin was still beloved at Ole Miss. That will change Saturday when Kiffin's surging Tigers take advantage of a Crimson Tide team that's looked like a far cry from its No. 5 College Football Playoff ranking.
With LSU's defensive ferocity and Alabama's offensive struggles, I like the Tigers to cover up to -6.5 at home against the Tide.
Not only has LSU's defense been wrecking opponents, but the Tigers' offense has been on fire too, with Sam Leavitt fourth nationally in QBR (85.3) and 12th in adjusted completion percentage (79.5%).
Leavitt's improved play and the emergence of Jackson Harris (480 receiving yards and seven TDs in his last four SEC games) are a problem for an Alabama defense that's ranked 78th in pass success rate (44.3%).
COVERS INTEL: Alabama's offense is averaging just 13.5 points per game against defenses ranked in the top 20 by SP+, LSU's defense is ranked sixth and hasn't allowed more than 14 points at home in a game this season.
Alabama vs LSU Over/Under pick: Under 52.5
This game isn't one of the must-watch games in my college football Top 25 predictions this week because I'm expecting offensive fireworks; it's because of the talent on these defenses.
LSU's defense is especially loaded, and with Alabama's struggles against quality defenses, I would play the Under at 51.5 or better.
The Tigers are second nationally in sacks (34), and Keelon Russell hasn't managed pressure well. He's been sacked the ninth-most in the country (22) and has a 20.4% pressure-to-sack rate.
But I don't expect an offensive onslaught from LSU either. This is the best defense the Tigers have faced this season, with Alabama ranking 20th nationally in available yards percentage (37.7%) and 14th in net adjusted EPA per play.
Alabama vs LSU combo
Alabama has gotten off to slow starts and failed to cover in three straight games as a result.
In the Crimson Tide's last three games, it trailed Georgia 10-0, trailed Tennessee 9-0, and trailed Texas A&M 14-10. If Alabama gets off to another slow start and trails LSU, the Tigers' defense will pin their ears back and go to work.
LSU ranks eighth nationally in pass success rate on defense (36%) and has one of the most lethal pass rush duos in the country, Princewill Umanmielen and Jordan Ross (58 combined pressures and 13.5 sacks).
Death Valley is one of the hardest places to play, and with Alabama's broken offense, I don't expect the Tide to score much early against this opportunistic LSU defense.
Alabama vs LSU combo
- LSU -5.5
- Under 52.5
- LSU first half -3.5
- Top picks: 20-16, +1.39 units
- Combos: 8-28, -1.78 units
Alabama vs LSU odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Alabama +5.5 | LSU -5.5
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (51%) | Under 52.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Alabama 33% | LSU 67%
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Alabama vs LSU weather
Weather isn't expected to affect the game in Baton Rouge, La., on Saturday afternoon.
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Alabama vs LSU trend to know
Alabama has only hit the team total Over in seven of its last 15 games. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs. LSU.
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How to watch Alabama vs LSU
| Location | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Alabama vs LSU latest injuries
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