College football's Week 10 Saturday slate is the biggest of the season, but don't sleep on the action under the Friday night lights.
Among my Week 10 Friday night football picks are an SMU team trying to stay alive in the ACC Championship race, a Nebraska squad in desperate need of a win, and an Arizona program looking to keep its ranking.
However, my favorite Friday college football picks focus on a pair of Group of Six teams making major noise.
Week 10 Friday night college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Virginia Techvs  SMU |
-5.5 |
53% |
 South Floridavs  East Carolina |
ML |
45% |
 Nebraskavs  Illinois |
-4.5 |
49% |
 New Mexicovs  Nevada |
-9.5 |
53% |
 TCUvs  Arizona |
-7.5 |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Friday night picks this week
Virginia Tech vs SMU: SMU -5.5
Year 1 for James Franklin in Blacksburg has had some bright moments, but Virginia Tech has only played one program ranked top 50 by SP+, and the Hokies lost that game to Pitt (No. 38). So while SMU is coming off an upset loss to Syracuse, the Mustangs are the best team Virginia Tech has played by a mile (ranked No. 25 by SP+).
With Rhett Lashlee's program back at home, it's poised to take out its frustration from last week's loss on the Hokies, and I would play SMU at -6.5 or better.
Virginia Tech's defense has struggled against the pass this season, ranking 80th in pass success rate (44.6%), and this SMU team loves to go to the air with Kevin Jennings.
The Mustangs rank ninth nationally in EPA per pass, and Jennings ranks top 10 in the country in passing yards (2,414), TD passes (21), and adjusted completion rate (81.1%).
SMU is 2-0 ATS in ACC play at home, while Tech is just 2-3 overall ATS in conference games.
South Florida vs East Carolina: South Florida ML
South Florida has better resources than any other Group of Six program, and it's starting to show in Brian Hartline's first season. The Bulls outscored their last two opponents 59-12 behind one of the best defenses in the G6.
That's terrible news for an East Carolina offense that struggled to score on Temple last week... Temple's defense is one of the worst, ranking 129th in success rate (49.8%). If the Pirates can't score, they can't win, so while I would take USF to cover as a 2.5-point underdog, I'd rather back the Bulls to win outright.
USF's defense ranks top 15 nationally in points allowed per opportunity (2.58), success rate (39%), EPA per dropback, and EPA per rush. East Carolina's offense is 125th in the country in available yards percentage (37.3%).
South Florida also has one of the most underrated running backs in college football, D.J. Crowther, who is second nationally in forced missed tackles (50). Crowther can do enough for USF's offense to win a low-scoring game.
Nebraska vs Illinois: Nebraska -4.5
It's hard to fathom how Nebraska lost last week to Washington (it involved allowing a fourth-and-18 conversion and throwing a pick-six), but the Cornhuskers finished with a higher net success rate than the Huskies. That means they should have won, and with Matt Rhule feeling the pressure, he'll have Nebraska ready to rock an Illinois team that can't be trusted.
Illinois has one of the worst defenses in the Power Four, and I Nebraska is capable of covering up to -6.5 on the road. The Fighting Illini rank 123rd nationally in defensive success rate (48.8%) and are bottom five in the Big Ten in havoc rate (13.6%).
In five games against defenses ranked outside the top 50 by SP+, Nebraska has scored 31+ points each time, with Anthony Colandrea committing just two turnover-worthy plays and accounting for 15 TDs.
If that's the Colandrea the Cornhuskers' defense has supporting it, they should win with ease. Nebraska has one of the best defenses in college football, ranking fourth in success rate (36.3%) and seventh in available yards percentage (31.8%).
New Mexico vs. Nevada: New Mexico -9.5
The AP Top 25 just ranked New Mexico for the first time in the program's history, and yet, Jason Eck still has fuel to motivate his team because the CFP committee didn't rank the Lobos.
With New Mexico playing at a higher level than any other G6 program, I like the Lobos to cover up to -11.5 on the road against Nevada. Eck's team has one of the most disruptive defenses in college football, leading the country in havoc rate (25.5%) and success rate (33.3%).
Nevada has a one-dimensional offense with no consistency in the passing game (127th in EPA per dropback), which should allow the Lobos to focus on stopping the Wolf Pack's ground attack.
I don't expect Nevada to put up more than 17 points, and New Mexico's run game (27th in EPA per rush) will wear down a Wolf Pack defense that's ranked 97th in rush success rate (46.4%).
TCU vs Arizona: Arizona -7.5
For a moment it looked like Arizona might upset Texas Tech and put itself in the Big 12 Championship conversation, and though the Wildcats didn't pull it off, it's clear they're one of the best non-CFP contending teams.
TCU, on the other hand, is one of the least impressive teams in the Power Four. In games against P4 programs, the Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS, and I think Arizona can cover up to -9.5 against Sonny Dykes' team.
With an offense ranked 135th nationally in EPA per rush, TCU doesn't match up well with a Wildcats defense ranked top 25 in pass success rate (38.6%). The Horned Frogs have yet to even score more than 22 points against a P4 team this season.
Noah Fifita ranks top 20 in the country in QBR (81.3), adjusted completion percentage (80.7%), and TD passes (19), so Arizona shouldn't have trouble pulling away.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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