Alabama vs LSU Picks & Props
ALA vs LSU Picks
NCAAF PicksLSU is hitting its stride, while Alabama is faltering, so I'd play the Tigers up to -6.5. Since losing to Kentucky, LSU has outscored its last two SEC opponents 69-17, with Sam Leavitt accounting for eight touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Tigers' defense will be even scarier for an Alabama team that lacks playmakers, especially if Ryan Coleman-Williams doesn't play. LSU's defense is fourth nationally in havoc rate (22.2%).
With LSU holding six of eight opponents this year to 17 points or fewer, I like the Under at 51.5 or better. Alabama is averaging just 13.5 points per game against defenses ranked top 20 by SP+, and the Tigers are ranked sixth.
Jackson Harris is averaging 119.8 receiving yards in his last four games and can shred Alabama (93rd in EPA per pass and 117th in passing success rate in their last four games). He's averaging a robust 2.97 yards per route run as the focal point of a passing attack that leads the nation in success rate since Week 5.
Lotzeir Brooks has posted a team-high 2.30 yards per route run since Week 5. LSU has been vulnerable to slot receivers at times: Kentucky's Kenny Darby (79 yards) and Mississippi's Traylon Ray (115 yards and a score).
I would take the Under on Alabama's team total at 21.5 or better. The Crimson Tide are averaging just 13.5 points per game against defenses ranked top 20 by SP+, and LSU is ranked No. 6.
Volume, efficiency, and health all align for Green in Week 10. He's played in four games, racking up 50+ yards every time out and finding pay dirt twice. Green's 2.21 yards per route run is elite for a tight end, and he's now closer to full health following a bye week.
Alabama has gotten off to slow starts in each of its last three games; it failed to cover in all three games. This LSU defense is at its best rushing the passer, and if the Tigers build a first-half lead, its defense can pin its ears back and get after Keelon Russell. LSU is second nationally in sacks (34) and fourth in havoc rate (22.2%).
ALA vs LSU Consensus Picks
ALA vs LSU Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
S. Leavitt
(QB)
u264.5 Passing Yards
242.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-22.5
DIFFERENCE
25.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
u240.5 Passing Yards
235.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.8
DIFFERENCE
14.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
T. Brown
(RB)
o25.5 Rushing Yards
34.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.1
DIFFERENCE
25.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
S. Leavitt
(QB)
o31.5 Rushing Yards
41.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.6
DIFFERENCE
24.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
D. Hill
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
36.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.6
DIFFERENCE
24.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
LSU
D. Jones
(RB)
o75.5 Rushing Yards
80.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
20.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
u20.5 Rushing Yards
19.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
J. Harris
(WR)
o69.5 Receiving Yards
86.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.2
DIFFERENCE
27.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
R. Coleman-Williams
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
62.40 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.9
DIFFERENCE
26.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
K. Edwards
(TE)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
22.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.4
DIFFERENCE
25.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
M. Pritchett
(TE)
o20.5 Receiving Yards
28.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.6
DIFFERENCE
25.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
E. Wilson III
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
38.46 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.0
DIFFERENCE
24.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
L. Brooks
(WR)
o41.5 Receiving Yards
49.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
23.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
R. Scott
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
57.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.0
DIFFERENCE
23.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
D. Hill
(RB)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
12.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.7
DIFFERENCE
21.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
D. Jones
(RB)
u26.5 Receiving Yards
22.98 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.5
DIFFERENCE
18.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
LSU
W. Watkins Jr.
(WR)
o40.5 Receiving Yards
43.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
14.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LSU
J. Harris
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
4.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
10.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LSU
E. Wilson III
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
3.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
10.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
R. Coleman-Williams
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
0.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ALA
R. Scott
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
0.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LSU
W. Watkins Jr.
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-2.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
LSU
T. Green
(TE)
u4.5 Receptions
4.21 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-14.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
LSU
D. Jones
(RB)
o17.5 Carries
17.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-4.98%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Crimson Tide last 6 games in November.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games in November.
Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Louisiana State.
Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.