The No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels face off against the No. 11 Michigan State Spartans in the Fort Myers Tip-Off on Thanksgiving Day.
Both schools are 6-0 to start the year, but somebody has to lose today, and my North Carolina vs. Michigan State predictions expect that to be UNC.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this clash between blue bloods on Thursday, November 27.
North Carolina vs Michigan State prediction
North Carolina vs Michigan State best bet: Michigan State moneyline (-105)
The North Carolina Tar Heels have a massive frontcourt anchored by superstar freshman Caleb Wilson (20.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game) and 7-foot center Henri Veesar (16.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg).
However, UNC lost senior guard Seth Trimble to a broken arm a few weeks ago. Although Freshman Luka Bogavac has done a commendable job replacing him in the starting lineup, the backcourt depth has been significantly hurt.
The focal point of the Michigan State Spartans' offense is point guard Jeremy Fears, who leads the nation with 10.2 assists per game. He's one of four Spartans averaging double digits in points, with big man Jaxon Kohler putting up 15.3 ppg and 9.5 rpg.
At this point in the season, most teams have played only a small sample of games against quality opposition. It's crucial to break those few contests down to handicap how they'll play against each other.
The Tar Heels' only win against a power-conference foe came in the form of an 87-74 victory over Kansas, when they still had Trimble. They won that game thanks to their massive frontcourt, which outscored the Jayhawks 48-20 in the paint and outrebounded them by 12.
However, they won't replicate that against MSU, which also has plenty of size up front and defends the rim at a high level while ranking eighth in the nation in rebounding rate.
The Spartans boast a pair of victories against No. 22 Arkansas and No. 19 Kentucky. They held both of those teams to 66 points, proving they could shut down highly efficient and up-tempo attacks.
That's good news against a UNC offense that also fits that description.
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North Carolina vs Michigan State same-game parlay
The Spartans play at a sluggish pace, and they have the ability to slow this game down. They're eighth in the country in adjusted defense while ranking 241st in adjusted tempo.
UNC is no slouch on the defensive end of the floor either, ranking 19th in adjusted defense and third in opponent effective field goal percentage (40.2%). The Under is 3-1 in North Carolina's last four games while going 4-1 in Michigan State's previous five contests.
Fears is one of the best passers in the country and has logged nine or more assists in every game this season. UNC is 300th in opponent turnover rate, and that lack of ball pressure will give Fears plenty of time to set the table.
North Carolina vs Michigan State SGP
- Michigan State moneyline
- Under 153
- Jeremy Fears Over 8.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: TEASER
Veesar has logged fewer than 7.5 boards in three of his last five games, including that game against Kansas, where he had just four rebounds in 38 minutes. This is also the biggest and most physical frontcourt he's faced all season.
North Carolina vs Michigan State SGP
- Michigan State ML
- Under 153
- Jeremy Fears Over 8.5 assists
- Henri Veesar Under 7.5 rebounds
North Carolina vs Michigan State odds
- Spread: North Carolina -1 | Michigan State +1
- Moneyline: North Carolina -115 | Michigan State -105
- Over/Under: Over 153 | Under 153
North Carolina vs Michigan State betting trend to know
The Spartans have gone 9-3 SU and ATS against ranked opponents since the start of last season. Find more college basketball betting trends for North Carolina vs. Michigan State.
How to watch North Carolina vs Michigan State
| Location | Suncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, FL |
| Date | Thursday, November 27, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
North Carolina vs Michigan State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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