The Michigan Wolverines face off against the Michigan State Spartans in Big Ten action on Tuesday night. The Spartans will try to bounce back from a lopsided loss on the road against No. 6 Wisconsin, and they couldn't ask for an easier opponent than the slumping Wolverines who sit at the bottom of the conference standings.
College basketball odds have MSU installed as a 12-point home favorite with the Over/Under at 144.5 for this rivalry clash. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan vs. Michigan State on Tuesday, January 30.
Michigan vs Michigan State best odds
Michigan vs Michigan State picks and predictions
The Michigan State Spartans have a modest 12-8 record but have faced one of the toughest schedules in the country, and their KenPom rating of No. 18 is a more accurate indication of how good they are.
It's a good thing that Michigan Wolverines fans got to see their school win a national championship in football because their basketball team has been an embarrassment. The Wolverines are coming off a double-digit loss at home against Iowa and are just 1-8 straight up and against the spread in their last nine games.
While many college basketball teams have stark home/away splits, things are even tougher for the Wolverines, who are currently playing away contests without Dug McDaniel. McDaniel, who leads the team in points (17.2) and assists (5.1) per game, has been suspended for road games due to academic reasons. In the two away contests that he has missed so far, Michigan scored just 57 points against Maryland and dropped 67 points on 34% shooting versus Purdue.
The absence of McDaniel really hurts since Michigan need its offense to be firing on all cylinders to make up for its terrible defense. The Wolverines are 168th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (the worst ranking in the Big Ten), and over their last three games they've surrendered 91.7 ppg on 51.1% shooting.
The Wolverines sit outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate and opponent 3-point percentage (36.1%). Those are areas that the Spartans can exploit since they pass extremely well (10th in the country in assists per FGM), take care of the ball (43rd in turnover rate) and shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc.
Michigan State is 34th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and is even better on the other end of the floor, ranking 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency. With the Spartans going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at the Breslin Center, back them to win and cover here.
My best bet: Michigan State -11.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Michigan vs Michigan State same-game parlay
Michigan State -11.5
Nimari Burnett Over 2.5 assists
Tyson Walker Over 1.5 threes
With McDaniel out, Nimari Burnett will be counted on to do the bulk of the playmaking. Burnett is coming off a five-assist performance against Iowa and he has dropped at least three dimes in five of his last six games — including both contests which McDaniel sat out.
Tyson Walker is coming off a poor shooting performance against Wisconsin but should bounce back against a Michigan team that struggles to contain guards. Walker leads the Spartans with 19.3 ppg and knocks down 2.1 treys per game at a 40.2% clip.
Walker has knocked down at least a pair of 3-pointers in 11 of his last 15 games and since he also shot better than 40% from deep in each of the last two seasons, we know that he's consistent. With the Wolverines getting torched from long range, expect Walker to go off from deep.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Spartans installed as 11-point favorites with the O/U at 145.5. The spread has slowly ticked up with most books at -12 as of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday. Meanwhile, the total is trending down and is now at 144.5.
The Spartans are fresh off an 81-66 loss to Wisconsin where they were 2.5-point underdogs. Frankly, they should have been catching way more points on the road against one of the best teams in the country in the Badgers. Prior to that loss against the Badgers, they had gone 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their previous 10 games with their only defeats coming on the road.
The Wolverines are on a three-game losing streak where they have lost every game by double digits. They lost 88-78 to the Hawkeyes at home when last seen and before that, they were clobbered by 32 points against Purdue on the road and lost by 15 points at home to an Illinois squad that was missing its best player.
Michigan has been one of the worst teams to back on the spread, going just 6-14 ATS this season. But the Over has been profitable in Wolverines games, going 14-6.
Michigan vs Michigan State betting trend to know
The home team is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings between these rivals. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Michigan State.
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Michigan vs Michigan State game info
| Location: | Jack Breslin Students Events Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 30, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Michigan vs Michigan State key injuries
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