The Yale Bulldogs can thank the officials for their upset of Auburn in Friday night's March Madness odds. By calling so many fouls, they set up Yale for success.
However, there is no reason to assume that will continue against the San Diego State Aztecs in the second round of the March Madness bracket.
Not only will the Bulldogs’ hopes evaporate in our March Madness picks, but so too will their scoring. It may seem anti-climatic, but let’s trust in a low-scoring game in our free college basketball picks for Yale vs. San Diego State on Sunday, March 24.
Yale vs San Diego State best odds
Yale vs San Diego State picks and predictions
Yale head coach James Jones recognizes his team is facing a talent gap in the NCAA Tournament, and he has repeatedly dragged out the games in order to lessen its impact.
In his two previous NCAA appearances, Yale cashed the Under in two out of three games. Before this week, four of the last six Ivy League games in March Madness had gone Under their totals.
What caused Friday's game to eclipse its total was the officials being overly whistle-happy.
And that is fine. This is not a screed about bad officiating. They probably let a bit too much go in the final minute or two given they had spent the previous 38 minutes calling every foul they could, but that would be the only possible complaint. They were consistent enough to not warrant scrutiny.
But they did spend all night calling fouls, far more fouls than either Auburn or Yale typically sees. Yale took 15 more free throws than it averaged this season, while Auburn gave up seven more free throws than it had averaged.
Give equal weight to both teams and quick math argues there were 14 extra free throws in the game, worth 10 extra points. That alone would not have gotten home an Under approach, but it would have put that into play.
That alone certainly would have lost Yale the game, netting a 5.5-point edge in this conversation. Auburn was never going to cover as a 14-point favorite — that was part of why the Bulldogs wanted to slow things down — but it would have likely won outright if the officials had not tilted the game toward the Bulldogs’ trips to the charity stripe.
That is not something that should be repeated, especially facing San Diego State’s excellent defense.
The Aztecs boast a Top 10 unit in the country, one built on forcing a lot of 3-pointers but contesting every look. Opponents took threes with 40.4% of their shots against the Aztecs this season, making just 30.6% of them.
Stereotypes aside, Yale does not like shooting from deep, taking threes on just 35.4% of their shots (No. 228), nearly two percentage points below the national average. Fade the Bulldogs offense in this one.
My best bet: Yale team total Under 61.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Yale vs San Diego State same-game parlay
Yale team total Under 61.5
San Diego State moneyline
Jaedon LeDee Over 7.5 rebounds
The Aztecs should dash this pipe dream of an Ivy League Cinderella. We enjoyed Princeton last year, and the Tigers would have had a better chance at making such a run again than the Bulldogs have. That is part of the problem: Yale was not even the best team in the Ivy League.
San Diego State’s defense is just too good. All season, the Aztecs have boasted the 14th-best defense in the nation, per barttorvik.com. Being able to so thoroughly dictate the game by keeping opponents behind the arc, San Diego State sets a low floor for opponents to spiral toward. Unless the Bulldogs are scorching hot, that floor should await them.
Forcing opponents to chuck contested shots from deep has also boosted Jaedon LeDee’s rebounding numbers all season, averaging 8.4 per game. Yale will have to cripple the game’s pace in order to keep LeDee to fewer than eight rebounds on Sunday.
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Yale vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened Friday evening with San Diego State favored by 5.5 points, a number that has not fluctuated as of Saturday evening.
Yale has been a multi-score underdog only three times this season — and an underdog just seven out of 28 times. In those three games, the Bulldogs have gone 2-1 against the spread, including Friday’s outright win.
The total opened at 129 or 129.5, depending on your sportsbook, and it fell to 128.5 immediately.
Yale vs San Diego State betting trend to know
Aside from last year’s run to the national championship game, San Diego State has gone 0-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2021. Find more college basketball betting trends for Yale vs. San Diego State.
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Yale vs San Diego State game info
| Location: | Spokane Arena, Spokane, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, March 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Yale vs San Diego State key injuries
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