My Florida vs. Florida State prediction centers on whether or not the Seminoles can exploit their size against the nation's No. 1 team.
Florida is favored by 9.5 points for tonight's 6 p.m. ET tipoff at Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee. After last year's two-point thriller, I see value in the underdog and a lower-scoring combo.
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TOP PICK
Who will win Florida vs Florida State: Florida State +9.5
After digging into their roster build, I'm investing in the Florida State Seminoles +9.5, down to +8.5.
Unlike most teams, Florida State has enough size to handle the Florida Gators' frontcourt.
According to KenPom, the Seminoles have a taller average height with four starters who measure 6-foot-7 or taller. This includes 7-foot center Marcis Ponder and 6-foot-11 stretch four Sebastian Rancik.
Also, this is an annual meeting between these in-state rivals, and FSU covered as a 17.5-point road underdog in a 78-76 loss last season in Gainesville.
Granted, Florida is better this year, but last season was Seminoles head coach Luke Loucks' first in Tallahassee. On3.com ranks FSU's transfer class seventh nationally and its recruiting class No. 16.
COVERS INTEL: The Gators are 28th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage after ranking 321st last season. They rank 297th in free-throw shooting over their first two games, which is more predictive because it isolates shooting skill better than any other shot. 
Florida vs Florida State Over/Under pick: Under 166.5
I lean toward the Under 166.5, down to 164.5, and I'm using it as a combo leg because a lower-scoring game helps a big underdog hang around.
The Gators are 17-11 to the Under in non-conference games since 2023-24. Both teams can clean the glass, limiting second-chance points and making it tougher to get out in transition.
Plus, Florida State's offensive efficiency is misleading. The Seminoles averaged 102.0 points through two games, but those came against Florida A&M (343rd in KenPom) and Troy (200th). Florida is a completely different animal, ranking No. 2 overall and sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Florida vs Florida State combo
I'm pairing Florida State +9.5 with Under 166.5 because I see the Seminoles making this an ugly, competitive game rather than getting run out of the gym.
Florida State has the personnel to battle Florida in the paint, which should help the Seminoles control the tempo and avoid giving up easy baskets. Meanwhile, I'm skeptical the Gators can maintain their early hot shooting from downtown, especially with their struggles at the charity stripe.
The biggest threat to this combo is Florida turning defensive stops into transition buckets. Otherwise, I like FSU's chances of hanging around and keeping the scoreboard in check.
Florida vs Florida State combo
- Florida State +9.5
- Under 166.5
- Top picks: 4-1, +2.62 units
- Combos: 2-3, +0.97 units
- Props: 2-1, +0.77 units
Florida vs Florida State odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Florida -9.5 | Florida State +9.5
- Over/Under: Over 166.5 | Under 166.5
- Moneyline: Florida 81% | Florida State 20%
For the full slate of college basketball matchups, check out our college basketball odds board!
Florida vs Florida State trend
The Seminoles went 4-2 against the spread vs. ranked teams with a +7.7 spread differential last season. Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch Florida vs Florida State
| Location | Donald L. Tucker Center, Tallahassee, Fla. |
| Date | Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026 |
| Tip off | 6 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Florida vs Florida State latest injuries
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