The Oregon State Beavers were picked to finish dead last in the Pac-12 standings in the preseason, but enter the NCAA Tournament as conference tournament champions.
Now, the Beavers could be a sexy pick to upset the Tennessee Volunteers in the fabled 12-5 matchup. The Vols have shown flashes of brilliance, but inconsistency has held them back. So, can you trust them to cover the 7.5-point chalk, or can the Beavers carry that momentum over the Big Dance?
Check out our best Oregon State vs. Tennessee March Madness picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Friday, March 19.
Oregon State vs Tennessee odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTennessee dropped from -8.5 Sunday night to -7.5 by Wednesday at FanDuel, but the Volunteers then stretched to -9 and are at -8.5 90 minutes before Friday's 4:30 p.m. ET tipoff. However, Oregon State is the more popular play, taking 71 percent of spread bets and 72 percent of spread money. The total opened at 134, got as low as 130 and is now 130.5, although the Over is landing 73 percent of bets/65 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameOregon State Beavers vs Tennessee Volunteers betting preview
Injuries
Oregon State: No injuries to report.
Tennessee: John Fulkerson F (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in Oregon's last six games overall and 9-0 in Tennessee's last nine neutral site games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. Tennessee.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Yes, Oregon State was picked to finish dead last in the Pac-12 this season, but luckily for the Beavers, things did not go as planned.
Oregon State entered the conference tournament winners of four of its last six games and was 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Then the Beavers rattled off three consecutive wins in the Pac-12 Tournament, all as underdogs of five points or more. They are now 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
The Beavers rode some red-hot shooting to win the Pac-12 title, hitting 44 percent of their 3-pointers during the tourney and they’ll need guards Ethan Thompson and Jarod Lucas to keep it up if they want to upset Tennessee.
The Vols would be an infuriating team to be a fan of this season. They have the potential to make a deep March Madness run. They have good guard play, are athletic, and get after it on the defensive end where they rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.
But the Vols’ inconsistency on offense has really cost them this season. They don’t shoot a lot of threes, and when they do, they hit just 33 percent of them, ranking 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
As a result, they went 8-7 down the stretch, going 5-9-1 ATS. That includes choking away a 15-point lead against Alabama in the SEC Tournament semifinals. It doesn't help that the status of John Fulkerson is also up in the air.
It’s hard to know if the Beavers will be yet another 12-seed to upset a 5-seed, but this just feels like too many points to say no to, considering the confidence the Beavers are playing with. And not for nothing, 12-seeds are 20-11-1 ATS against 5-seeds since 2012. Take Oregon State and the points.
PREDICTION: Oregon State +7.5 (-110)
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Over/Under Pick
The total for this matchup hit the board at 133.5, so March Madness odds are expecting Oregon State to come back down to Earth a bit against a strong Tennessee defense. But that may be a little hasty.
The Beavers are averaging 73.8 points per game over the last six games, cashing the Over in each instance. And while Tennessee is likely the strongest defense they have faced this season, Colorado and USC both rank in the Top 30 of adjusted defensive efficiency. And if there is a place the Vols struggle to defend a bit, it’s on the perimeter.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the floor, the Beavers rank 117th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and even with a team as offensively inconsistent as Tennessee, it’s still talented enough to send this one Over this number.
PREDICTION: Over 133.5 (-110)
Team Total Pick
In that same vein, Oregon State has a team total that is set quite low at 62.5. That’s a number they’ve gone Over in each of their last six games and eight times over the last 10 games overall. Obviously, if the Beavers go cold from the outside, this number is a little more tenuous. But it just seems like Oregon State is getting hot at the right time.
Additionally, Tennessee has allowed 63 points or more in eight of its last 10 games, and one of those games Florida didn’t play its leading scorer. Take the Beavers to go Over their team total.
PREDICTION: Oregon State Over 62.5 Points (-110)
Oregon State vs Tennessee betting card
- Oregon State +7.5 (-110)
- Over 133.5 (-110)
- Oregon State Over 62.5 Points (-110)
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Where can I bet on March Madness odds?
March Madness is one of the most popular times of the year for sports bettors, which of course makes it one of the busiest times of the year for online sportsbooks. Every betting site will offer March Madness odds but the top sites are safe and secure, offer a wide range of banking options, and give you a ton of markets for each game. Check out the best March Madness betting sites in your region.
