If there is a team that has a gripe with the NCAA Tournament selection committee, it’s the Oklahoma State Cowboys and potential No. 1 pick in the NBA draft Cade Cunningham.
Despite winning eight of their last 10 games and getting to the Big 12 Tournament Championship, the Cowboys got a tough draw with the Midwest’s No. 4 seed and open against the defensive-minded Liberty Flames, laying 9-points. Are the Pokes primed for an upset?
Check out our best Liberty vs. Oklahoma State March Madness picks and predictions for college basketball betting action on Friday, March 19.
(Editor's Note: Picks are reflecting odds on the original publishing date of March 15, 2021.)
Liberty vs Oklahoma State odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 3:30 p.m. ET Friday, Oklahoma State is down to -7 from Sunday night's -9 opener and a -9.5 high point at FanDuel. The Cowboys are attracting 64 percent of spread bets and 57 percent of spread money. The total opened at 145.5 and plunged to 139 by Thursday afternoon, and it's now 139.5, with the Over nabbing 64 percent of bets/72 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameLiberty Flames vs Oklahoma State Cowboys betting preview
Injuries
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Oklahoma State: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Oklahoma State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a straight-up loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Liberty vs. Oklahoma State.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
After seeing their performance in the Big 12 Tournament, some NCAA bracket projections had Oklahoma State as high as a 2-seed. During the last 10 games, they beat Texas Tech (a 6-seed), West Virginia twice (a 3-seed), and of course, upset the No. 2 overall seed in the whole tourney, Baylor.
The Pokes’ reward? A date with a dangerous Liberty team that has won 12 games in a row. Liberty plays a Virginia-type style of suffocating defense and can shoot the 3-ball. The Flames are led by an excellent guard in Darius McGhee, who averaged 15.5 points and is shooting 41.4 percent from 3-point range.
That said, not only does Oklahoma State have arguably the best player in the country in Cunningham, but they are peaking at the right time and playing their best basketball of the season.
Cunningham looks like a man amongst boys when he is on the court and is capable of taking over a game at any point. He averages 19.7 points and shoots 42.5 percent from three, has a strong handle, the ability to create his own shots, and has great court vision. Simply put, there’s a very good reason he could be the first pick in the upcoming NBA Draft.
But Cunningham also has the support of guys like Avery Anderson III and Isaac Likekele. The Pokes are also very athletic and long on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 22nd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
Yes, Oklahoma State got a tough draw, but they are just playing very well as a team right now, and have too many weapons for Liberty to completely slow them down. I'm getting a bit of a Kemba Walker-UConn or Carmelo Anthony-Syracuse vibe from the Pokes in the NCAA Tournament, and we actually might be getting a better number than we should be considering the seeding. Lay the points.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma State -7 (-110)
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Over/Under Pick
The total for this game hit the board at 142 and that’s an interesting number considering the matchup. Oklahoma State averages 76.7 points per game and that has bumped up to 78.6 points over the last 10 games, with the Over going 7-3 in that stretch.
The question is whether the Liberty defense and offensive pace will keep this game below the number? The Flames play at one of the slowest tempos in the country, but they are a good enough shooting team that they still averaged 74.9 points per game in conference play.
Cunningham and Oklahoma State’s talent will force Liberty to push the pace a little more than normal, which means the Over is the way to go here on the March Madness odds board.
PREDICTION: Over 142 (-110)
First-half team total pick
While Oklahoma State has been a dangerous team down the stretch, the Pokes have done most of their damage in the second half of games. In the Big 12 Tournament, despite averaging 80.3 points per game, they averaged just 32.7 in the first half. When you consider the tempo and defensive style of Liberty, it may take a half of basketball for Oklahoma State to get settled in before taking over late. The Pokes have a fairly high first-half total, bet for them to slip below it.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma State Under 36.5 First Half Team Total (-110)
Liberty vs Oklahoma State betting card
- Oklahoma State -7 (-110)
- Over 142 (-110)
- Oklahoma State Under 36.5 First Half Team Total (-110)
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