The Drake Bulldogs advanced to the Round of 64 after a nail-biting 53-52 win over the Wichita State Shockers in their First Four matchup on Thursday. Now they'll try to keep their magical season alive as they face the USC Trojans in the West Region first round on Saturday.
College basketball betting odds opened with Southern California as a 6.5-point favorite with the Over/Under installed at 138.5.
Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Drake vs. USC on Saturday, March 20, with tipoff at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Drake vs USC odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe SuperBook at Westgate opened Southern Cal as 6.5-point chalk Thurday night and on game day moved to -7, where the line remains at 2:45 p.m. ET. "This is a good two-way game on the spread," SuperBook executive director John Murray said. The total tumbled from 139.5 to 135. "A lot of sharp money on the Under," Murray said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameDrake Bulldogs vs USC Trojans betting preview
Injuries
Drake: Roman Penn G (Out).
USC: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Drake vs. USC.
Drake vs USC picks
All picks below made at odds that were available on March 19.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Drake might be an NCAA Tournament longshot with March Madness odds of +10,000 to win the title, but the Bulldogs had been the best bet in college basketball for the first half of the season, going 15-0 SU and 13-0 ATS through their first 15 games. Unfortunately, injuries to leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill (14.1 points per game) and starting point guard Roman Penn caused the Bulldogs to take a step back in the final month of the season.
Hemphill returned to the lineup against the Shockers but was clearly not close to 100 percent, scoring three points over 10 minutes in the victory. Even if he doesn't play any better against USC, the Bulldogs should still have a chance thanks to their defense, which holds opponents to 64.6 points per game and limited Wichita State to 35 percent shooting on Thursday.
Southern California is coming off a 72-70 loss to Colorado in the Pac-12 semifinals. For the most part, it's been a successful season for the Trojans, who have gone 22-7 SU but they've occasionally played down to their opposition. They got pushed to overtime by mid-major schools California Baptist and UC Riverside, while losing by 10 points to a sub-.500 Utah team at the end of February.
USC is led by freshman center Evan Mobley, who will likely be a Top-3 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Mobley was named Pac-12 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year after averaging 16.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game.
Mobley, along with older brother Isaiah, gives USC a pair of terrific big men but the Trojans guard and perimeter play leaves much to be desired. USC ranks outside the Top-200 schools in the country in assists per field goal while sitting outside the Top 250 in three-pointers made per game. The Trojans also shoot just 64.4 percent from the free-throw line (325th in the nation), so if Drake finds itself behind near the end of the game and starts fouling, it could close the gap and grab a late cover. Take Drake with the points.
PREDICTION: Drake +6.5 (-110)
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Over/Under Pick
The Bulldogs offense hit a snag after losing Hemphill and Penn, and after Hemphill's performance Thursday night it's fair to say he's not going to immediately return to his early-season form. It's a good thing the Bulldogs' defense has been so stingy because they're scoring just 62.5 ppg of their own over their last four games.
The Trojans, meanwhile, have been one of the top defensive teams in the country, holding foes to 64.1 ppg on 39.1 percent shooting. With the Mobley brothers protecting the paint, the Trojans have been a brick wall close to the basket and rank sixth in the country in blocks per game (5.3) and second in opponent two-point field goal percentage (42.2).
Both of these teams also prefer to play at a slower pace, with the Trojans ranking 236th in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom, and the Bulldogs ranking 270th. Take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 138.5 (-110)
Team Total Pick
The Bulldogs are coming off a sad offensive performance (53 points on 38 percent shooting) and they've been held to 65 or fewer points in three of their last four games.
The Trojans have a very tough defense and although Drake has played other strong defensive teams this season, it always struggles to score against them. Besides the last game against Wichita State, the Bulldogs also faced Loyola-Chicago on three separate occasions this season and put up just 56.7 ppg.
With USC ranking 20th in the country in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, take the Under on Drake's team total.
PREDICTION: Team Total Drake Under 66.5 (-110)
Drake vs USC betting card
- Drake +6.5 (-110)
- Under 138.5 (-110)
- Team Total Drake Under 66.5 (-110)
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