Missouri vs Oklahoma West Region Picks: Tigers Have Been Mauled

Editor's note: This preview was written and published prior to the news that Oklahoma's De'Vion Harmon, the teams second-leading scorer, would not play following a positive COVID-19 test.

A pair of schools that were at one point in the year both ranked in the Top 10 will face off in the first round of the West Region when the Missouri Tigers meet the Oklahoma Sooners. 

The battles between the No. 8 and 9 seeds in the tournament are usually very competitive so it shouldn't be a surprise that college basketball betting lines for this matchup opened with the Sooners as slim 2-point favorites. 

Here are our best free March Madness picks and predictions for Missouri vs. Oklahoma on Saturday, March 20, with tipoff at 7:25 p.m. ET. 

Missouri vs Oklahoma odds

Sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Oklahoma went up as a 2.5-point favorite Sunday night at FanDuel, dipped to -2 fairly quickly and went to -1 Wednesday on the news that second-leading scorer De'Vion Harmon would miss today's game due to COVID. This morning, the line jumped the fence to Missouri -1.5, and Mizzou is -1 as of 3:45 p.m. ET. Still, the Sooners are attracting 59 percent of spread tickets and 61 percent of spread money. The total is down to 139.5 from a 141 opener and 141.5 high point, with the Over drawing 52 percent of tickets and money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Missouri Tigers vs Oklahoma Sooners betting preview

Injuries

Missouri: None.
Oklahoma: De'Vion Harmon G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 14-3 in Missouri's last 17 NCAA Tournament games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Missouri vs. Oklahoma.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

Less than 40 days ago the Tigers were the No. 10-ranked team in the country in the AP Top 25, while the Sooners were just two spots behind them at No. 12. But both teams collapsed down the stretch ahead of the NCAA Tournament. 

The Tigers are coming off a 70-64 loss to Arkansas in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. They are now just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. The Sooners, on the other hand, are fresh off a 69-62 loss to the Jayhawks. That dropped their record to 1-4 SU over their last five games, while they are 0-7 ATS in their previous seven contests. Neither team is a favorite to claim the national title, as Oklahoma's March Madness odds to win are +10,000, and Missouri is an even bigger longshot.

One of these teams has to snap out of their recent slump, however, and there are a few reasons why we think that will be Oklahoma. The Sooners aren't the most athletic team but they play very smart ball. They commit the 12th fewest personal fouls per possession while turning the ball over on just 13.8 percent of their offensive plays, good for the 25th-best mark in the country. They're also dependable at the free-throw line where they connect on 74.2 percent of their attempts.  

Mizzou, meanwhile, ranks 309th in the country in fouls per possession while sitting outside the Top 150 in turnovers per offensive play. The Tigers have been shaky at the charity stripe, too, ranking outside the Top 200 with a free throw percentage of 69.7. 

Those are the sorts of mistakes that killed the Tigers in their previous game against Arkansas, where they committed 25 personal fouls and turned the ball over 21 times. Doing the little things right is what matters in games of this magnitude which has us fading the error-prone Tigers on the spread. 

PREDICTION: Oklahoma -2 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

Oklahoma plays at a slower tempo but that allows the Sooners to make the most of their offensive chances. They rank 36th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and average 75.1 points per game. 

The Sooners are led by first-team All-Big 12 guard Austin Reaves who paces the team with 17.7 points, 4.7 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game, but they also have a solid supporting cast with De'Vion Harmon and Brady Manek. 

Mizzou averages 74.1 points per game and has three players averaging over 12 ppg, led by guards Xavier Pinson and Dru Smith (both with 14.1 ppg). With multiple scoring options for both teams and neither school dominating on the defensive end of the floor, look to take the Over. 

PREDICTION: Over 140.5 (-110)

First Half Pick

The Sooners are coming off a shocking first-half performance against Kansas where they put up just 15 points. The truth is that the Sooners have struggled to hit their shots in the early going against excellent defensive teams like Kansas and Texas Tech, averaging just 25.4 first-half points per game in five contests against those stingy squads. 

They get off to much better starts against the majority of teams they face, however, scoring 36.9 ppg in the first half of their other 20 games this season.

Missouri is nowhere near as good as the Jayhawks and Red Raiders when it comes to team defense, so take the first half Over on Oklahoma's team total.

PREDICTION: First Half Team Total Oklahoma Over 33.5 (-110)

Missouri vs Oklahoma betting card

• Oklahoma -2 (-110)
• Over 140.5 (-110)
• First Half Team Total Oklahoma Over 33.5 (-110)

Where can I bet on March Madness odds?

March Madness is one of the most popular times of the year for sports bettors, which of course makes it one of the busiest times of the year for online sportsbooks. Every betting site will offer March Madness odds but the top sites are safe and secure, offer a wide range of banking options, and give you a ton of markets for each game. Check out the best March Madness betting sites in your region.

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