March Madness rumbles on as the Round of 32 tips off on Saturday morning with a matchup between the No. 9 Saint Louis Billikens and the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines, and concludes with the No. 12 High Point Panthers and No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks.
Let’s take a look at the spread for all eight games on tap for the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.
Here are my favorite March Madness picks against the spread (ATS) for each game on Saturday, March 21.
March Madness picks against the spread for Saturday, March 21
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Saint Louisvs  Michigan |
+12.5 |
 Louisvillevs  Michigan State |
-4 |
 TCUvs  Duke |
+11 |
 Texas A&Mvs  Houston |
-10 |
 Texasvs  Gonzaga |
+5.5 |
 VCUvs  Illinois |
-10.5 |
 Vanderbiltvs  Nebraska |
-2.5 |
 High Pointvs  Arkansas |
+11.5 |
Lines courtesy of bet365.
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Expert March Madness Round 2 ATS picks for Saturday
No. 9 Saint Louis vs No. 1 Michigan: Saint Louis +12.5
At some point, after a blistering start to the season, the Michigan Wolverines became overrated in the betting market. Dusty May’s squad is 6-16 ATS in its last 24 games.
The Saint Louis Billikens, who were one of the most impressive teams in the First Round by dropping 102 points on Georgia, should put up points in a high-tempo game, which will make it hard for Big Blue to find separation.
No. 6 Louisville vs No. 3 Michigan State: Michigan State -4
The Louisville Cardinals got it done in round one, but there are still serious questions about how this team will fare when stepping up in competition. Pat Kelsey’s squad is 1-5 against ranked opponents. They rank 359th in Away From Home Grade and 363rd in Paper Tiger Factor (Haslametrics).
No. 9 TCU vs No. 1 Duke: TCU +11
As long as the Duke Blue Devils are without Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, they’re vulnerable. Ngongba has a chance to suit up, but after missing Thursday’s opener, he’s certainly not at 100%. He ranks 8th nationally in BPR (+10.02 per EvanMiya) and is needed against a TCU Horned Frogs team that has covered nine of its last 11 games.
No. 10 Texas A&M vs No. 2 Houston: Houston -10
You could make an argument that the Texas A&M Aggies face a similar style opponent to their First Round opponent, Saint Mary’s, but I think that’s a trap.
This is a bad matchup because A&M will get killed on the glass (300th in defensive rebounding rate), and it won’t be able to force turnovers for breakaway points as Houston has the fewest turnovers per game (8.5).
A&M had been leaking water for a while now (3-7 ATS since February 7) and was fortunate that Saint Mary’s had an outbreak of illness.
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No. 11 Texas vs. No. 3 Gonzaga: Texas +5.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs were thoroughly unimpressive in a 73-64 First Round win against Kennesaw State and are just 3-6 ATS in Quad 1 games. What made them potentially special this year was the big man pairing of Graham Ike and Braden Huff (combined 37.5 points and 13.8 rebounds per game), but the latter is out injured.
The Bulldogs racked up three wins against SEC teams in the non-conference, but had Huff (+7.64 BPR) for all of those games, and they need him against tougher competition.
No. 11 VCU vs No. 3 Illinois: Illinois -10.5
The Illinois Fighting Illini are a death star offensively and have the lowest turnover rate in the country over the last month, so they’ll be unbothered by the ball pressure defense of the VCU Rams.
VCU wants to hit threes and get to the foul line offensively, but that’s where Illinois excels defensively (second nationally in adjusted three-point defense, first in adjusted free throw rate).
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 4 Nebraska: Vanderbilt -2.5
These teams are very close on paper overall, but less so when you look at their games against top competition. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are 1-6 straight up (and 2-5 ATS) in their last seven games against teams that earned a Top 10 seed in the Big Dance, whereas Vanderbilt is 6-4 straight up (and 6-4 ATS) in its last 10 such games.
No. 12 High Point vs. No 4 Arkansas: High Point +11.5
The High Point Panthers are a certified wagon, winning 15 straight. The pace will be glorious in a game with a total of 168.5, so the Panthers should find plenty of offense against a beatable Arkansas Razorbacks defense that ranks 216th in effective field goal percentage and 255th in turnover rate during its opponent’s win streak.
The Razorbacks have big issues defending inside the arc, which is music to the Panthers’ ears (17th in two-point percentage).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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