MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Friday, September 4

It's a loaded 16-game MLB slate across the big leagues tonight, and I've pinpointed my best moneyline predictions and picks for each contest. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, Sep. 4. 

MLB moneyline picks for September 4

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
DET vs CLE	56%
DET vs CLE	45%
MIL vs CIN	60%
ATL vs PHI	49%
LAA vs PIT	64%
BOS vs BAL	48%
SF vs NYM	64%
CHC vs MIA	45%
MIN vs CHW	49%
TB vs TEX	52%
AZ vs HOU	56%
TOR vs KC	49%
STL vs COL	55%
NYY vs SD	55%
WAS vs LAD	75%
ATH vs SEA	66%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 4.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 4

Tigers vs Guardians Game 1: Guardians

Guardians win probability: 56%

Keider Montero takes the ball for the Tigers in Game 1 of this doubleheader, and he's struggled lately. Across his last four outings, the right-hander owns a 4.64 FIP, and he also has a 4.27 FIP on the road. 

The Guardians counter with reliever Logan Allen in what will be a bullpen game. He doesn't typically last more than one or two innings, but Cleveland's relief corps has the profile to limit a Tigers offense with a horrendous 65 wRC+ in the last week. 

Their pen has posted a 3.39 xERA across its last 20 2/3 innings. 

Cleveland is the pick. 

Tigers vs Guardians Game 2: Tigers

Tigers win probability: 45%

I’m backing the Tigers in Game 2 behind rookie Andrew Sears. It’s a small sample, but he has held his own through two starts, and Cleveland owns just a 91 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.

Foster Griffin has been worse at Progressive Field, with a 4.83 xERA over the last month, giving Detroit enough value despite its offensive issues.

The Tigers are the play. 

Brewers vs Reds: Brewers

Brewers win probability: 60%

The Brewers have the cleaner pitching profile here. Shane Drohan has collected a 3.33 xERA across his previous two starts with minimal home run damage, and he owns a 3.10 road FIP. 

Rhett Lowder has allowed 2.45 HR/9 over the last two weeks while posting a 5.82 FIP. He's also had struggles at home. 

Milwaukee's offense is also firing on all cylinders with a 120 wRC+ in the last seven days. 

Braves vs Phillies: Braves

Braves win probability: 49%

Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sanchez is undoubtedly going to be a pitcher's duel, but I'm siding with Atlanta. While Sanchez has been elite lately with a 2.07 FIP over his last two outings, the lefty has allowed a 40.7% hard-hit rate, leaving room for vulnerability. 

Sale, meanwhile, owns a ridiculous 1.23 FIP during that same span while allowing a mere 2.5% barrel rate. 

The Braves also have a 116 wRC+ in the last week, while the Phillies sit at 85. 

Angels vs Pirates: Pirates

Pirates win probability: 64%

The Pirates are surging, and their offense is what separates them in this matchup. Pittsburgh has a 106 wRC+ in its last six games, and they will face the vulnerable Ryan Johnson, who is struggling with command and hard contact lately. 

Jared Jones hasn't been much better recently, with a 4.82 xERA over his previous two starts, but the Angels are truly in horrendous offensive form, posting a 61 wRC+ over the last seven days. 

This pick is a no-brainer. 

Red Sox vs Orioles: Orioles

Orioles win probability: 48%

I like Baltimore here because of their profile against left-handed pitching. The O's have a 103 wRC+ when a southpaw is on the mound, and although they're not swinging it consistently at the moment, Ranger Suarez is shaky. He has a 5.52 FIP across his previous two appearances. 

Shane Baz gives Baltimore stability with his recent success, and the Orioles also have a 106 wRC+ at home this season. 

Take the hosts. 

Giants vs Mets: Mets

Mets win probability: 64%

Rookie Matt Wilkinson takes the hill for the Giants, and while he's looked decent since coming up to the Majors, the left-hander hasn't been untouchable. He has a 4.42 xERA through three appearances, and he's more vulnerable than Nolan McLean right now.

The Mets starter hasn't allowed a single barrel over his previous two outings, and he owns a 3.40 FIP during that span with no home runs allowed. San Francisco is in slightly better offensive form than New York, but McLean gives them the edge. 

Cubs vs Marlins: Marlins

Marlins win probability: 45%

It's definitely hard to ignore how Chicago's offense is swinging the bats, but it's even more difficult to overlook Shota Imanaga's recent 9.95 FIP. Over his last two starts, he's also allowed 5.14 HR/9.

Janson Junk has been a lot more stable for the Marlins, compiling a 3.48 FIP with zero home run damage. Miami is swinging it well enough to capitalize on Imanaga's struggles. 

Twins vs White Sox: Twins

Twins win probability: 49%

Zebby Matthews gives Minnesota a clear edge in this matchup. The starter has an impressive 1.92 FIP across his previous two appearances, with no homers allowed and minimal walks surrendered as well. 

Erick Fedde has been much more vulnerable, posting a 5.68 xERA with a concerning 16% barrel rate. 

Minnesota's red-hot lineup will benefit. 

Rays vs Rangers: Rays

Rays win probability: 52%

The Rays send Nick Martinez to the hill, and his recent form gives them an edge against Texas. He sports a 2.18 xERA over the last two weeks while consistently pounding the strike zone and inducing weak contact. 

Kumar Rocker's numbers are respectable during that same span, but the Rangers righty is walking a lot of hitters, and Tampa's offense is no pushover on the road. 

I like Tampa in this position. 

Diamondbacks vs Astros: Astros

Astros win probability: 56%

Merrill Kelly has been improving for Arizona, but his struggles on the road are evident, as he has a 5.26 FIP with home run issues. Houston's lineup also owns a 104 wRC+ at home this season. 

Cristian Javier has been solid with a recent 2.50 FIP, and the Diamondbacks lineup has a 72 wRC+ over the last week. 

The Astros are the play. 

Blue Jays vs Royals: Blue Jays

Blue Jays win probability: 49%

I like Toronto in this position. Their offense is coming alive at the best possible time, posting a 119 wRC+ in the last week. They face the vulnerable Daniel Lynch IV, who has compiled a 7.50 xERA over his previous two appearances.

Jameson Taillon returns from injury tonight, and while his lease may be short, he was decent in his first two Blue Jays starts, allowing just three earned runs. 

Take the Jays. 

Cardinals vs Rockies: Cardinals

Cardinals win probability: 55%

The Rockies are still a nightmare offensively lately, and Kyle Leahy has been pitching well for the Cardinals. He has a 2.54 xERA over his last two outings. 

Ryan Feltner's recent form is respectable, but the Cardinals have been producing offensively lately, and on the road they have a 103 wRC+. The ball always flies in Denver, giving any visitor an advantage, too. 

St. Louis here. 

Yankees vs Padres: Yankees

Yankees win probability: 55%

The Yankees head into this clash in much better offensive shape, posting a 110 wRC+ in their last seven games. Walker Buehler is also struggling lately, posting an FIP over five across his previous two appearances. 

Max Fried has been better, and, most notably, the Padres are struggling to produce at the plate, with a 94 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers that is very average. 

Play the Bombers tonight. 

Nationals vs Dodgers: Dodgers

Dodgers win probability: 75%

Blake Snell has been dominating. He has a 2.10 FIP across his previous two starts, and the Nationals are below the league average offensively as of late. 

Jackson Kent has also pitched decently for Washington, but his command issues are a real concern against a Dodgers lineup that can capitalize. They're also carrying a 106 wRC+ over the last week into tonight's contest. 

The price isn't great, but lock in LA. 

Athletics vs Mariners: Mariners

Mariners win probability: 66%

JT Ginn's struggles are what give Seattle a clear advantage tonight. The Athletics starter has a 6.73 FIP over the last two weeks with major control and home run problems. 

Logan Gilbert, meanwhile, is in much better form. He owns a 2.86 xERA during that same span. The Mariners' 111 wRC+ recently also plays well against Ginn. 

Seattle here. 

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