We've spent eight months pretending we know which college football teams are good. It's time to find out.
Week 1 brings the first full slate of the season, and with games running from Thursday through Monday, we're about to learn very quickly which offseason hype was justified and which teams had us completely fooled.
I'm putting 12 of the week's most intriguing matchups under the microscope. Here are my college football moneyline picks for Week 1, with more betting analysis available in our college football picks.
College football moneyline picks for Week 1
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 COLO vs  GT |
32% |
 SJSU vs  EMU |
57% |
 TOL vs  MSU |
78% |
 LIB vs  JMU |
67% |
 BAY vs  AUB |
71% |
 BSU vs  ORE |
94% |
 WYO vs  CSU |
40% |
 CLEM vs  LSU |
77% |
 UCLA vs  CAL |
52% |
 WKU vs  NEV |
52% |
 LOU vs  MISS |
70% |
 SMU vs  FSU |
60% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 1 CFB moneyline picks
Colorado vs Georgia Tech: Colorado
I'm already taking the points with Colorado, but I think the Buffs have a legitimate chance to win this game outright. Georgia Tech needed 156 rushing yards and a game-winning touchdown from Haynes King to escape Boulder last season, and he's now gone. With Julian Lewis owning the experience edge over first-time starter Alberto Mendoza, I'm willing to take a shot on Colorado to return the favor and upset the hosts.
San Jose State vs Eastern Michigan: Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan showed enough offensive balance in its Week 0 win to earn my trust here. Noah Kim threw for 279 yards, and while San Jose State flashed late against USC, much of that production came after the game had gotten away. At home, with the more settled quarterback situation, I’m backing Eastern Michigan to move to 2-0.
Toledo vs Michigan State: Michigan State
Toledo has enough experience at quarterback to make this competitive, but the Rockets are replacing almost their entire starting lineup and working through massive roster turnover under Mike Jacobs. Michigan State enters Pat Fitzgerald’s first season with more continuity at quarterback and a stronger overall talent base. I don’t love laying a big number here, but on the moneyline, I’m comfortable trusting the Spartans to survive at home.
Liberty vs James Madison: James Madison
James Madison is dealing with major turnover after losing Bob Chesney and most of last year’s starting lineup, but the program has established an extremely high floor since moving to the FBS level. Liberty is also replacing key offensive production after a disappointing four-win season. In a matchup where both sides have questions, I trust JMU’s recent program stability and home-field edge enough to back the Dukes outright.
Baylor vs Auburn: Auburn
Baylor spent the offseason fixing the exact weakness Auburn exposed last year, when the Tigers ran for 307 yards in a 38-24 win. The problem is Auburn may have upgraded the quarterback stressing that defense. Byrum Brown rushed for 1,008 yards and 14 touchdowns in Alex Golesh’s offense last season, and I expect that run-RPO system to keep Baylor’s rebuilt front seven in conflict all afternoon.
Boise State vs Oregon: Oregon
Boise State has enough returning production to remain one of the better Group of Five teams in the country, but this is an entirely different challenge. Oregon brings back Dante Moore after a 3,565-yard, 30-touchdown season and surrounds him with another loaded group of playmakers. There’s no reason to get cute with the moneyline here. At Autzen, I expect Oregon’s talent advantage to eventually overwhelm the Broncos.
Wyoming vs Colorado State: Wyoming
Colorado State enters Week 1 with more than 60 new players and five new starters along the offensive line under Jim Mora, which is a lot of change for a team being asked to win this rivalry game immediately. Wyoming has turnover too, but new quarterback Tyler Hughes already knows OC Christian Taylor’s system. The Cowboys won this matchup 28-0 last year, and I think they’re live to win again.
Clemson vs LSU: LSU
Clemson heads into Baton Rouge with a new starting quarterback and four departed veteran offensive linemen who combined for 161 career starts. That’s a brutal matchup against a Blake Baker defense that ranked among the nation’s best at generating pressure last season. LSU won this matchup despite a poor offense a year ago, and with Sam Leavitt and Lane Kiffin upgrading that side of the ball, I’m backing LSU.
UCLA vs California: UCLA
This is one of the closest games on the board, but I’m giving UCLA the edge because of its quarterback-coach combination. Nico Iamaleava accounted for most of UCLA’s offense last season despite playing in a dysfunctional unit, and now gets Bob Chesney, who won immediately at James Madison. California has upside under Tosh Lupoi, but in a near coin-flip matchup, I’m siding with the more proven quarterback.
Western Kentucky vs Nevada: Western Kentucky
Nevada made legitimate defensive progress last season, but Western Kentucky remains one of the more dependable programs in this tier of college football. Tyson Helton has consistently produced winning teams, and the Hilltoppers already handled Nevada 31-16 in last year’s meeting. With the market treating this as a relatively competitive matchup, I’m comfortable leaning on WKU’s offensive system and program stability to get the win again.
Louisville vs Mississippi: Mississippi
Louisville’s defense is good enough to make this uncomfortable, but the quarterback gap ultimately pushes me toward Ole Miss. Trinidad Chambliss threw for nearly 4,000 yards last season, while Louisville turns its offense over to Lincoln Kienholz, who enters with only 36 career pass attempts. Add Kewan Lacy alongside Chambliss, and I trust the Rebels’ proven backfield to make enough plays late to win in Nashville.
SMU vs Florida State: SMU
Florida State’s Week 0 win didn’t erase my concerns. New Mexico State threw for 272 yards and converted 10 of 17 third downs against the Seminoles, and now Kevin Jennings comes to Tallahassee after throwing for 3,641 yards and 26 touchdowns last season. FSU should be sharper in its second game, but this is a massive jump in quarterback competition, and I’m backing SMU to expose it.
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