The Texas A&M Aggies will look to get off to another fast start in 2026 as they host the Missouri State Bears in College Station on Saturday afternoon.
The Aggies are massive favorites over the Bears, but I'm picking them to win by even more in my Missouri State vs. Texas A&M predictions.
Keep reading to get my free college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.
TOP PICK
Missouri State vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas A&M -41.5
While the Missouri State Bears had their moments in a 7-6 season last year, they only played one game even somewhat comparable to facing off against the Texas A&M Aggies. In that game - Missouri State's opener against the USC Trojans - the Bears took a 73-13 blowout on the chin.
The Aggies bring back starting quarterback Marcel Reed and boast a deep wide receiver corps including Mario Craver, Ashton Bethel-Roman, and Isaiah Horton. This offense put up 33.8 ppg last year and will be able to name its score against a Bears team that is adjusting to a new head coach in Casey Woods along with a new defensive coordinator.
I'm backing Texas A&M to cover at up to 41.5 points.
COVERS INTEL: Texas A&M was also dominant on defense last year, allowing an FBS-low 2.2 yards per rushing attempt in 2025. That will ensure the Bears are one-dimensional on offense after ranking 121st in rushing las year (3.5 yards per carry).
Missouri State vs Texas A&M total pick: Over 53.5
Under Casey Woods, Missouri State will likely push the tempo, just as Woods did when he was the offensive coordinator with the SMU Mustangs. The Bears already put up 280 passing yards per game last year, and we can expect to see them air the ball out even more in 2026.
That won't necessarily translate to a ton of success against the Aggies, but it will mean that the Bears keep the game moving. More possessions means more points for this Texas A&M offense, who might handle this total all on their own. And if the Bears can contribute a little - even if it's only after the Aggies start rotating out their starters - then we're going to be in for a very high-scoring contest.
I'm taking the Over at totals of up to 54.5 points.
Missouri State vs Texas A&M combo
No matter how good this Texas A&M defense is this season - and it may well be among the best in the country - I don't expect it to completely shut down this Missouri State offense in Week 1.
The Bears have brought in former UTEP Miners quarterback Skyler Locklear to run the offense. He offers a dual-threat look, and while he's been vulnerable to throwing interceptions, he also pushes the ball deep, with 23 touchdowns and 17 picks over 16 games as a starter.
Will that approach work often against the Aggies? Unlikely. But Locklear only needs to connect once to get Missouri State Over its total of 6.5 points. That combines well with the Over, while I still don't expect the Bears to score nearly enough to stop the Aggies from covering.
Missouri State vs Texas A&M combo
- Texas A&M -41.5
- Over 53.5
- Missouri State Over 6.5 points
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Missouri State vs Texas A&M odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Missouri State +41.5 (53%) | Texas A&M -41.5 (47%)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (51%) | Under 53.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Missouri State 2% | Texas A&M 98%
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Missouri State vs Texas A&M weather
It'll be a hot and fairly humid day in College Station on Saturday. Temperatures near 90 at kickoff will favor the team with more depth, which is clearly Texas A&M.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Missouri State vs Texas A&M trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in Missouri State's last four games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri State vs. Texas A&M.
How to watch Missouri State vs Texas A&M
| Location | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Missouri State vs Texas A&M latest injuries
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