The last thing an upset-minded team wants to see is its upcoming opponent lose the game just before theirs. That’s what the TCU Horned Frogs face as the Houston Cougars come to town in a Big 12 showdown.
The Cougars saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in just their second regular-season conference loss in the last two years.
My Houston vs TCU predictions and college basketball picks call for the Cougars to cover with a vengeance on Wednesday, January 28.
Houston vs TCU prediction
Houston vs TCU best bet: Houston -7.5 (-110)
The Houston Cougars had covered in three straight — including spreads of 18.5 and 13.5 in conference games — before Texas Tech sprung the upset in Lubbock with a 21-11 advantage in offensive rebounding.
The Cougars have posted their two worst defensive rebounding rates of the season in their last two games, which coach Kelvin Sampson, who prides himself on suffocating defense and grueling practices, noticed.
When asked about some calls in the loss that didn’t go Houston’s way, Sampson said, "I'm not going to sit here and (complain) about the referees when they kicked our a-- the way they did on the offensive glass. So I'm not into that narrative. I don't even care about the whistle right now. I care about getting our guys better at the things that we can get better at."
You can expect Houston to be focused on the boards. For a TCU Horned Frogs team that has managed to get 25% of offensive rebounding attempts just twice in the last five games, while allowing opponents to get 40% or more of their own misses in three of the last four, that’s a bad sign.
Look for Houston to control the boards, control the pace, and turn in an effort that will make Sampson … a little less surly. Happy may be asking too much.
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Houston vs TCU same-game parlay
After five straight games with totals below 130 points, Houston had a 103-73 shootout with Arizona State and the 90-86 loss to Tech. Sampson will want his team to control the pace and impose its will on TCU.
While nowhere near as slow as the Cougars, TCU only plays at the 170th-fastest pace in the nation, so there won’t be a lot of pressure on Houston to speed things up.
If you think this is as simple as taking virtually any Cougar Over on rebounding, congratulations! You understand the assignment.
Sampson doesn’t just demand defense and rebounding from his team; he recruits players who want to play that way. Chris Cenac Jr. is averaging eight rebounds over the last five games, but had no offensive boards in the Tech loss. He’ll rectify that against TCU.
Houston vs TCU SGP
- Houston -7.5
- Under 137.5
- Chris Cenac Jr. Over 7.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Sharp Corners
In his fifth season with Sampson, Emanuel Sharp is the team’s second-leading scorer, and he had zero rebounds against Texas Tech. As team leader, he will be the first one hitting the boards tonight.
Houston vs TCU SGP
- Houston -7.5
- Under 137.5
- Chris Cenac Jr. Over 7.5 rebounds
- Emanuel Sharp Over 3.5 rebounds
Houston vs TCU odds
- Spread: Houston -7.5 (-115) | TCU +7.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Houston -380 | TCU +300
- Over/Under: Over 137.5 (-110) | Under 137.5 (-110)
Houston vs TCU betting trend to know
Houston has covered the Spread in eight of their last 12 away games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. TCU.
How to watch Houston vs TCU
| Location | Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, January 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Houston vs TCU key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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