My Warriors vs. Suns prediction targets Phoenix laying 9.5 along with the total at 221.5.
Golden State won three of four meetings last season, but enters on a back-to-back. I’m targeting Phoenix against the spread (ATS), the Under, and a Yaxel Lendeborg rebound prop.
Check out more NBA picks for Saturday, Oct. 24 before tip off at 10 p.m. ET.
Warriors vs Suns prediction: Suns -9.5
Give me the Phoenix Suns -9.5, up to -10.5, because this is just a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors, who are playing the second of a back-to-back after losing to the Memphis Grizzlies Friday.
Because of this, Golden State will probably be missing its starting backcourt. Steph Curry is unlikely to play, while Brandin Podziemski has already been ruled out.
That’s a massive problem. Through two games, Golden State has been outscored by 28.6 points per 100 possessions with Curry off the floor.
I'm also throwing out Phoenix's 41-point loss to the Trail Blazers. I picked Portland in that game because their frontcourt presented a major size mismatch.
The Warriors don't have that same advantage, making this a much cleaner matchup for the Suns to get right.
COVERS INTEL: Golden State was 0-3 straight-up and ATS in this spot last season with a -13.8 spread differential. This 'spot' = On the road for the second of a back-to-back after playing at home the night before. 
Warriors vs Suns combo
Phoenix -9.5 was almost my Top Pick, until I ran into the Warriors forward Yaxel Lendeborg 8+ rebounds, which I break down below.
I'm throwing the Under 221.5 into my combo because, as I always say: Blowouts are where Overs go to die. Typically, the winning team takes its foot off the gas in the second half, and the losing team is just trying to get out of there.
Plus, the Suns played at the third-slowest pace in the NBA in their only game this season, which was a blowout. The Warriors are 26th in pace through their first two games. Last season, Golden State was 19th in pace and Phoenix was 24th, so Friday's meeting is likely to be slow, too.
Warriors vs Suns combo
- Phoenix -9.5
- Under 221.5
- Yaxel Lendeborg 8+ rebounds
Warriors vs Suns player props
TOP PICK
Warriors player prop: Yaxel Lendeborg 8+ rebounds
With Curry and Podziemski most likely sitting Saturday, this could be the Yaxel Lendeborg Show. Golden State took the 6-foot-9 forward 11th overall in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Simply put, I like Yaxel's moxie and attitude. He got into it with Luka Doncic in the Warriors-Lakers game Wednesday. Of course, Luka lit him up, but I respected Lendeborg for stepping up to the challenge.
I'm taking Yaxel 8+ rebounds up to 50% because Dillon Brooks will likely spend plenty of time defending him. Brooks can make life difficult for Lendeborg as a scorer, but that shouldn't matter nearly as much on the glass.
Lendeborg is a long, explosive athlete who plays hard and can chase down rebounds regardless of who's guarding him. Also, this prop is one of the few Overs that correlates with the full-game Under.
Suns player prop: Devin Booker 25+ points
Devin Booker's 25+ points prop should be trading at least 54% because he is one of the best scorers in basketball. The five-time All-Star has averaged at least 25.6 points per game for the past eight seasons.
Booker scored a team-high 23 points on 53.8% field goal shooting in 29 minutes against the Trail Blazers Wednesday, and led Phoenix in usage rate. If Booker plays a couple more minutes Friday, he's clearing this number.
But if he doesn't, this matchup still sets up well for him. Booker averaged 33.7 points on 50.0% field goal shooting in three regular-season games against Golden State last season, and he's facing backups Friday.
- Top picks: 3-3, -0.11u units
- Combos: 0-6, -6.0 units
Warriors vs Suns odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Warriors +9.5 | Suns -9.5
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
- Moneyline: Warriors 24% | Suns 77%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Warriors vs Suns trend
Phoenix was 10-6 ATS when playing with a rest advantage last season. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Warriors vs Suns
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 |
| Tip off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Suns Live, NBC Sports Bay Area |
Warriors vs Suns latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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