Warriors vs Kings Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Tonight's NBA Playoff Game

The Warriors and Kings have produced a ton of electric matchups in recent years, most notably last year's seven-game series in Round 1 of the playoffs. They meet again in this year's Play-In Tournament and we expect Steph & Co. to handle business.

Apr 16, 2024 • 18:55 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The NBA Playoffs are here and we kick things off tonight as the Western Conference Play-In Tournament gets underway!

The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings provided us with an epic 7-game series in last year's playoffs, but this year they will meet a little earlier than expected, as both teams are in the Play-In Tournament.

Find out where I'm looking in my free NBA picks and Warriors vs. Kings predictions for Tuesday, April 16.

Warriors vs Kings predictions

My best bet
Warriors -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
When the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings met in the playoffs last season, one of the biggest disrupters to Golden State's offense was Sacramento using De'Aaron Fox or Davion Mitchell to pick up Stephen Curry full court.

Playing playoff minutes and having to bring up the ball against non-stop pressure is exhausting, especially for someone like Curry, who's also expected to be the leading scorer.

In the offseason, I felt the Warriors traded for Chris Paul in response to what they saw from the Kings in their playoff series, and ironically, these two teams will meet again. Making Curry work for 94 feet won't be a strategy the Kings can use against Curry this time around because the Warriors can give CP3 the ball and allow Steph to work away from it.

Not only does this take something away from the Kings, but I think several other matchups are working in favor of the Warriors at this current moment based on how both rosters are constructed.

The Warriors and Kings haven't played each other since January 25, which means all of their previous matchups featured Kevon Looney as the starting center against Domantas Sabonis.

Not only can the Warriors use the speed and physicality of Draymond Green on Sabonis, but I think the athletic Trayce Jackson-Davis will be a tough matchup considering Sabonis has never faced the Warriors with Jackson-Davis as the starting center.

And despite being on the road, I'm leaning toward the Warriors because the loss of Malik Monk is devastating for the Kings. It's a big reason why they've fallen to the No. 9 seed and into the Play-In Tournament but against the Warriors, that loss is magnified.

In last year's playoff series, Monk was the player the Warriors had a hard time slowing down, as he averaged 19 points per game, and the games the Kings won came when Monk exploded offensively. 

This line opened at Warriors -1 at FanDuel and has since moved to Warriors -2.5. I'd still hit the button at -2.5, but would stay away at -3. Movement in the market has caused the edge to slowly disappear.

Warriors vs Kings same-game parlay (SGP)

Warriors -2.5

Stephen Curry Over 28.5 points

Harrison Barnes Over 12.5 points

If we're backing the Warriors to cover the spread of -2.5, we're going to need more than 28.5 points from Stephen Curry to cover that number, which is why I'm pairing both of these bets together.

Curry always has a flair for the dramatic against the Kings considering he dropped 50 points in Game 7 at Golden 1 Center last season. Also, as I mentioned in the best bet, Paul allows Steph to work off the ball as a scorer.

I'm also including Harrison Barnes Over 12.5 points because he's the one player the Warriors consistently leave open when they face one another. The shots will be there, and so should the minutes, as Mike Brown has limited options off the bench with Huerter and Monk both injured.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Warriors vs Kings odds

Warriors vs Kings live odds

Warriors vs Kings opening odds

  • Spread: Golden State -1 (-108) | Sacramento +1 (-112)
  • Moneyline: Golden State (-112) | Sacramento (-104)
  • Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)

Warriors vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Warriors opened as a 1-point favorite at FanDuel and we've seen that number move 1.5 points in their favor, making the Warriors a 2.5-point favorite.

  • If you're looking to back the Kings, PointsBet is the only sportsbook trading the Warriors as a 3-point favorite.

  • The total opened at FanDuel at 228.5 and has seen a massive move towards the Under, now trading at 223.5.

  • Make sure to shop around before hitting the button on the total, as there's a wide range of numbers available between 223.5 and 225.

Warriors vs Kings trend

The Warriors have cashed the moneyline in 17 of their last 21 away games (+14.20 units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.

Warriors vs Kings game info

Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Date: Tuesday, 4-16-2024
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET

Warriors vs Kings latest injuries

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