Warriors vs Celtics Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

There's already enough concern about Steph Curry coming off an ankle injury, and facing an abundance of elite Celtics perimeter defenders won’t make it any easier for the future Hall-of-Famer tonight. Douglas Farmer has more below.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Nov 6, 2024 • 18:11 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Are the Golden State Warriors back? Opening the season at 6-1 both outright and against the spread demands the question. Facing the defending champion Boston Celtics will test that, and it may test Steph Curry the most.

All due respect to the first-ballot Hall of Famer, but NBA odds are still giving him too much deference. My Warriors vs. Celtics predictions will take that value in fading Curry, any free NBA picks needing to acknowledge Boston’s defense may be perfectly designed to slow Steph.

Tip comes at 7:30 ET on Wednesday, November 6.

Warriors vs Celtics prediction

My best bet
Steph Curry Under 24.5 points (-125 at bet365)

My analysis
It may be tempting fate to doubt Steph Curry in a nationally televised matchup against the best team in the NBA. This is the kind of moment that turned Steph from a man into a myth and then from a myth into a legend.

But Curry injured his ankle again two weeks ago, costing him three games already this season. He returned on Monday with 24 points in 24 minutes, but that was against the Wizards. How much stock can anyone really put in Washington’s perimeter defense?

Even before his ankle injury, this prop was a bit lofty for Curry, averaging 18.3 points in his first three games, never scoring more than 20 points. Then again, those low tallies could be dismissed by the Golden State Warriors blowing out Portland and Utah in their first two games and Curry thus playing only 25 and 27 minutes, then injuring his ankle after 26:42 in a loss to the Clippers.

Every example of Steph not pouring in points this season can be explained away without much effort. Then why doubt him tonight?

Because he was going against lackluster defenses in each of those games. Reread the opponents: the Blazers, the Jazz, the Clippers (sans Kawhi Leonard), and the lowly Wizards.

The Boston Celtics are a cut above those. Even as Golden State tries to manufacture depth in its roster, Boston can run several excellent perimeter defenders at Curry. Jrue Holiday can yield to Derrick White, only to then defer to Jaylen Brown, and let’s not forget about Jayson Tatum.

With a balky wheel, Steph is going to struggle to get downhill against the Celtics’ defense. Boston is too good to be the likely breakout moment for anyone, let alone someone coming off a chronic injury that once nearly cost them their career.

Warriors vs Celtics same-game parlay

Steph Curry Under 24.5 points

Celtics -6

Under 229.5

It's a bit difficult to ascertain too much about any team and its standing against expectations this early in the season. Golden State is 6-1 against the spread, but none of those opponents are notable contenders. 

To some degree, adding Celtics -6 here is an attempt to sell high on Golden State, and any bet fading Steph fits into the Under simultaneously cashing.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Warriors vs Celtics odds

Warriors vs Celtics live odds

Warriors vs Celtics opening odds

  • Spread: Golden State +7.5 | Boston -7.5
  • Moneyline: Golden State +260 | Boston -320
  • Over/Under: Over 230.5 | Under 230.5

Odds courtesy of bet365.

Warriors vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

  • This spread opened with the Warriors as 7.5-point underdogs in Tuesday’s earliest hours, climbing as high as +8.0 before the market fully engaged and knocked it down to +7.0 on Tuesday evening.
  • That spread kept falling as Wednesday became reality, reaching +6 before most office coffeemakers had been emptied.
  • The total opened at 230.5 and fell throughout Tuesday, valleying at 228.5 before settling at 229.5 on Wednesday.

Warriors vs Celtics trend

Oddly, while Boston is eight games into the season, it has played only two games at home. Notably, it went 2-0 ATS as a multi-bucket favorite in those games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Celtics.

How to watch Warriors vs Celtics

Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date: Wednesday, 11-6-2024
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN 

Warriors vs Celtics latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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