Our Mavericks vs. Spurs computer picks and NBA picks are a little heavy on the Unders tonight, particularly as it pertains to the Dallas Mavericks.
NBA player prop projections are fading Kyrie Irving's points and Cooper Flagg's assists, though San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson is poised for a productive night on Wednesday, Nov. 4.
Mavericks vs Spurs computer picks
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Mavericks |
 Spurs |
|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving u19.5 points 47% |
Keldon Johnson o9.5 points 47% |
| Daniel Gafford u7.5 rebounds 59% |
Keldon Johnson o3.5 rebounds 61% |
| Cooper Flagg u5.5 assists 53% |
Dylan Harper o3.5 assists 73% |
| P.J. Washington u1.5 threes 48% |
Julian Champagnie u2.5 threes 56% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Mavericks computer picks
Kyrie Irving Under 19.5 points (47%)
Projection: 18.10 points
Our NBA player prop projections peg Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving for just over 18 points, giving us an excellent value on Under 19.5. While Irving is averaging 21.4 points per game this season, that number is buoyed by a 35-point outburst in his last game against the Rockets on Halloween.
Sure, he's had rest, but he also failed to score 20+ in three of his previous four games to open the season.
Daniel Gafford Under 7.5 rebounds (59%)
Projection: 6.2 rebounds
Daniel Gafford is averaging exactly seven rebounds per night, and has landed at that number in back-to-back games. He's cleaning the glass at a better rate than he did to start the season (three rebounds in each of his first two games), but projections still expect him to finish with fewer than eight boards tonight against Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet in the paint.
Cooper Flagg Under 5.5 assists (53%)
Projection: 5.00 assists
Continuing along the Under train, projections have Cooper Flagg dishing out fewer than 5.5 dimes for the first time since Opening Night. That's a sweaty proposition, but the San Antonio Spurs represent a step up in opponent defense.
P.J. Washington Under 1.5 threes (48%)
Projection: 1.42 threes
P.J. Washington clearing his 3-pointers made prop is generally a coin flip. He's making just under two per game, which is a tick up from his 1.4 average last season. The computer likes the Under.
Spurs computer picks
Keldon Johnson Over 9.5 points (47%)
Projection: 10.94 points
Keldon Johnson scored 15 points in his last game on 5-for-12 shooting. The game before, he barely shot, going only 1-for-3 despite playing 24 minutes. Assuming his volume is closer to his averages, the computer projects him for double-digit points.
Keldon Johnson Over 3.5 rebounds (61%)
Projection: 4.97 rebounds
Johnson has cleared this number in every game this season. The run isn't going to stop tonight, either, as far as our projections are concerned. After opening the season by playing fewer than 20 minutes in back-to-back games (and clearing this Over both times), he's played 21:57 or more minutes every night. As long as the exposure remains high, his chances of cleaning the glass will match.
Dylan Harper Over 3.5 assists (73%)
Projection: 5.2 assists
There isn't a lot of value to be found on Polymarket for Spurs assists props, so adding Dylan Harper to pick up four dimes at 73% odds may not be super appealing. Still, there is something to be said for taking a gimme, especially if you make it part of a combo play.
Julian Champagnie Under 2.5 threes (56%)
Projection: 2.20 threes
Julian Champagnie is averaging 3.1 makes from 3-point range this season, but that average is massively inflated by an 8-for-13 showing vs. the Kings in late October. Otherwise, the sharpshooter has oscillated between 2-3 every night, making this play more of a coin flip, but the projections favor the Under.
Not intended for use in MA.
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