The Atlanta Hawks are a 2.5-point road favorite tonight as they take on the Washington Wizards, with tip-off from Capital One Arena scheduled for 7 p.m. ET.
However, my Hawks vs. Wizards prediction sees immense value in Washington, who are rolling right now.
Read more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, Nov. 4.
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Hawks vs Wizards prediction: Wizards +2.5
Play up to 57%.
The Washington Wizards are playing some of their best basketball lately, winning back-to-back games by a combined 25 points. They held the Hornets to just 79 points, while the Magic scored only 94 on Monday.
The Atlanta Hawks are by no means a pushover, but they could be without Jalen Johnson tonight, who's nursing an ankle sprain. That potential absence gives Washington a real edge.
But even if he does suit up, I'm still liking the Wizards with the points. Their defensive tenacity has been impressive, ranking eighth in defensive rating, and they're showing enough to keep Atlanta's productive offense in check at home.
COVERS INTEL: The Wizards are fifth in points in the paint, while Atlanta is 27th in points in the paint allowed. That's an avenue Washington can exploit, especially if Jalen Johnson is out. Hawks vs Wizards combo
I like the Under tonight. Washington has held its last two opponents to 94 points or fewer in two straight outings, while Atlanta's previous three games have all finished below 232.5.
The Wizards are also 6-1 to the Under this season, and both teams are averaging fewer than 116 ppg.
I'm rounding out my combo with Nickeil Alexander-Walker to show out. He's cleared this total in three of his last four, and the guard poured in 34 points last game without Johnson in the lineup.
If he sits, Alexander-Walker gets a bigger workload, and the Wizards are an easy matchup for shooting guards, allowing 26.6 ppg to the position.
Hawks vs Wizards combo
- Wizards +2.5
- Under 232.5
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 19.5 points
Hawks vs Wizards player props
Hawks player prop: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 2.5 threes
Play up to 66%.
You can find Alexander-Walker Over 3.5 threes tonight, but I'm more comfortable with 2.5, even if the value isn't as great at this price. Still, there's plenty of evidence to back it up.
The Canadian is shooting 40.3% from deep, and he's cashed the Over in three of his previous four outings.
Alexander-Walker took a whopping 15 treys on Monday and drained nine. He's averaging 3.9 makes this season on 9.6 attempts per contest. The volume is clearly there.
Wizards player prop: Anthony Davis Over 24.5 points
Play up to 50%.
Anthony Davis is looking solid early on, averaging 23 ppg on 48% shooting from the field. The big man has hit the Over in points in back-to-back contests, scoring 27 on Monday and another 25 on Halloween.
Johnson's potential absence is a major reason I like this pick, as AD will have the opportunity to impose his will inside without the length of the Hawks' best player. But he's also dominating overall, and as mentioned, Atlanta allows a ton of points in the paint.
The visitors are also giving up just under 25 ppg to opposing power forwards, and Davis has cleared this total in two of his three home games this season.
- Top picks: 8-6, 0.19 units
- Combos: 0-13, -13.00 units
- Props: 6-5, -1.10 units
Hawks vs Wizards odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Hawks -2.5 | Wizards +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
- Moneyline: Hawks 57% | Wizards 44%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Hawks vs Wizards trend
The Under is 6-0 in Wizards' last six overall. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Hawks vs Wizards
| Location | Capital One Arena |
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026 |
| Tip off | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | WANF, Peachtree Sports Network |
Hawks vs Wizards latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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