After missing a chance to eliminate the Houston Rockets in Game 5, the Los Angeles Lakers head back to H-Town for Game 6, where our NBA player prop projections has pinpointed several high-value opportunities.
By breaking down the data and comparing it to the latest market lines, we’ve uncovered where the strongest betting edges lie for this pivotal matchup.
These Lakers vs. Rockets predictions are driven by numbers instead of guesswork.
If you’re building your card, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Friday, May 1.
Lakers vs Rockets computer picks for Game 6
 Lakers |
 Rockets |
|---|---|
| James o21.5 points -120 |
Sengun o20.5 points -112 |
| Reaves o1.5 3-pointers -160 |
Thompson o7.5 rebounds -105 |
| Smart o3.5 assists -169 |
Sheppard o3.5 3-pointers +130 |
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Lakers Game 6 computer picks
LeBron James Over 21.5 points (-120)
Projection: 22.70 points
The Los Angeles Lakers have been rolling offensively on the road, averaging 116.2 points per game over their last 20 outings—good for eighth in the NBA.
Expect LeBron James to set the tone and keep that momentum going as Los Angeles looks to bounce back from a missed closeout chance in Game 5 against the Houston Rockets.
Austin Reaves Over 1.5 3-pointers (-160)
Projection: 2.11 3-pointers
In his return from injury, Austin Reaves scored 22 points in Game 5 but showed some rust from three-point range.
As he continues to regain rhythm — and with the Lakers trying to avoid a Game 7 — expect him to look more comfortable from deep and help fuel a push to close out the series against the Rockets.
Marcus Smart Over 3.5 assists (-169)
Projection: 3.75 assists
Marcus Smart has been a steady playmaking force throughout the series, only falling short of this assists line in Game 5.
He’ll look to sharpen his facilitation again as the Lakers try to avoid squandering another chance to eliminate the Rockets in the first round.
Rockets Game 6 computer picks
Alperen Şengün Over 20.5 points (-112)
Projection: 23.3 points
With Kevin Durant out, Alperen Şengün has taken on a central role for the Rockets in this series and will be counted on again as they try to extend things to a decisive Game 7 against the Lakers.
He’s been hovering near this points line in Games 1, 4, and 5, while clearing it in Games 2 and 3. With the season on the line, expect Şengün to be heavily involved offensively once again.
Amen Thompson Over 7.5 rebounds (-105)
Projection: 7.6 rebounds
The Rockets lead the league in offensive rebounding this season, and Amen Thompson has been productive across the board in this series.
He’s also cleared this rebound line in four of his last 10 games, reinforcing his impact on the glass.
Reed Sheppard Over 3.5 3-pointers (+130)
Projection: 3.6 3-pointers
Reed Sheppard has been due for an efficient shooting night from deep for the Rockets, and there’s no better stage than this one to get it going.
When he finds his rhythm from beyond the arc, Sheppard can change the game quickly, and a breakout shooting performance would give Houston a valuable boost on offense.
How to watch Lakers vs Rockets Game 6
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, May 1, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Not intended for use in MA.
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