Our NBA player prop projections are back for Wednesday’s showdown, and the model has circled a few player props worth your attention.
We ran the numbers, compared projections to the posted lines, and found the spots where there’s actual breathing room.
In these Celtics vs. Warriors predictions, we’re not guessing — we’re leaning on data.
If you’re building out your card, these are the NBA picks the system says have value on February 19.
Celtics vs Warriors computer picks for February 19
 Celtics |
 Warriors |
|---|---|
| Queta o6.5 points -105 |
Green o8.5 points -105 |
| Pritchard o3.5 rebounds -125 |
Porzingis o12.5 points -105 |
| Brown o4.5 assists +122 |
Santos u4.5 rebounds -112 |
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Celtics computer picks
Neemias Queta Over 6.5 points (-105)
Projection: 8.5 points
Neemias Queta doesn’t need plays drawn up for him; he scores off effort. Dump-offs, put-backs, and rim runs add up fast if he sees mid-20s minutes. The projection has him comfortably clearing this, and 6.5 is still a role-player number, not a featured-minutes number.
Payton Pritchard Over 3.5 rebounds (-125)
Projection: 4.5 rebounds
Payton Pritchard crashes hard for a guard and benefits from long rebounds off perimeter-heavy games. He plays enough minutes and stays active enough to clear four more often than not. The projection gives him a full-board cushion over this line.
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Jaylen Brown Over 4.5 assists (+122)
Projection: 4.7 assists
Jaylen Brown is averaging 4.7 assists per game, which already clears this number. You’re getting plus money on a line that sits below his season average. With the ball in his hands consistently and his usage steady, this is asking him to simply be himself — not have a spike game.
Warriors computer picks
Draymond Green Over 8.5 points (-105)
Projection: 9.5 points
Draymond Green doesn’t need volume to clear this number. Between transition buckets, short-roll finishes, and the occasional open three, he usually stumbles into double digits when the minutes are there. This line is modest, and the projection gives him a full point of cushion.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 12.5 points (-105)
Projection: 14.0 points
When Kristaps Porzingis is healthy and involved, 13 points is a low bar. He can get there with a few post touches, pick-and-pop looks, and trips to the line. The projection leans comfortably Over, and this number hasn’t fully adjusted to his scoring role.
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Gui Santos Under 5.5 rebounds (-112)
Projection: 4.8 rebounds
Gui Santos would need above-average minutes or an outlier rebounding game to get to six. His role fluctuates, and he’s not a primary glass-crasher when the regular rotation is intact. The projection keeps him safely below this number.
How to watch Celtics vs Warriors tonight
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Thursday, February 19, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Not intended for use in MA.
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