The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins will continue a three-game series on Wednesday night.
The Yankees took care of business yesterday with a 5-1 win to open this series. The win gave New York its second straight victory and pulled them into first in the AL East by a half-game. The loss dropped Minnesota two games behind the division-leading Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks and Yankees vs Twins predictions for Wednesday, May 15.
Yankees vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (+116 at FanDuel)
My analysis
I'm backing the New York Yankees again, as there's no reason to go in a different direction. My projections made this game a coin-flip, but looking at the handicap, my hand is forced to make New York my best bet for the second straight day.
Marcus Stroman will take the mound for the Yankees today, and it hasn't been the easiest year for him. Over two of his last three starts, he's allowed four earned runs and a host of hard-hit balls. Naturally, his recent play has suppressed the market for him. It's the perfect time to buy low. Why? Because of the matchup, of course.
Stroman has been leaning on his sinker more than ever, making up over 40% of his pitching arsenal. The Minnesota Twins haven't been good against this pitch this season. Lineups have yet to be officially announced, but depending on who Minnesota rolls out today, it could have only one player with a positive run value against the sinker this season. Even worse, up to six players in the lineup could have a wOBP below the league average against it. That's a lot of easy outs for Stroman, and it makes me comfortable to bet him navigating through this lineup.
On the other side is Pablo Lopez, whom I've backed a ton and have a lot of respect for as a player. However, I'm not so sure about this matchup.
The story with the Yankees has remained the same. It's one of the hardest-hitting teams in the league, and I'll continue to back them against pitchers who have the issue Lopez has, which is giving up the hard-hit ball. He ranks in the Bottom 35% of the league in hard-hit rate, and that's why I like the Yankees' chances of getting to him today. It certainly doesn't hurt that five players in the New York lineup have a career batting average over .300 against him, either.
Give me the Yankees today at these odds. It should be closer to -110, so I'll happily grab a plus-money price.
Yankees vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
I'm back to a similar process with our same-game parlay, pairing our best bet with the best New York hitter and AL MVP odds favorite. We hit yesterday at a nice price, and we're looking to do it again.
The handicap for this is quite similar to yesterday's. There are two players in baseball hitting the ball harder than Juan Soto has this season, and he's well-suited to exploit Lopez's issues. Soto also has a lifetime 1.329 OPS against Lopez in his career. I'm comfortable backing him to have success today.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Twins odds
Yankees vs Twins live odds
Yankees vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-194) | Minnesota -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: New York -104 | Minnesota -112
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota has taken a ton of money since this one opened. New York opened at around -105 and, as of early Wednesday afternoon, are at plus money at every book.
- This has been a competitive series recently. Over the last 10 games, New York has the slightest advantage with just a 6-4 lead.
- There has been a similar trend regarding the totals between these two teams. It's an even 5-5 to the Over across the last 10 games when these two teams have met.
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Yankees vs Twins trend
The Yankees have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Twins.
Yankees vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AmazonPV, BSNO |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (2-2, 3.80 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Pablo Lopez (4-2, 3.89 ERA) |
Yankees vs Twins latest injuries
Yankees vs Twins weather
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