Week 2 features a nightcap on the island, so let's dive into my New Mexico State vs. Hawaii prediction and college football picks.
Hawaii is a sizable 72% and 7.5-point favorite despite a poor showing on both sides of the ball to kick off the season, so there may be some value in the visitors.
Here are my favorite picks for New Mexico State vs. Hawaii on Saturday, Sept. 12, for this late game at 11:59 p.m. ET from Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu.
TOP PICK
Who will win New Mexico State vs Hawaii: New Mexico State +7.5
New Mexico State is 2-0 ATS with two impressive outings to show for it, hanging tight with Florida State (17-34) and demolishing Mercyhurst (51-14).
You couldn’t ask much more from Tony Sanchez’ improved group thus far. On the other hand, you could ask a lot more from a 0-2 ATS Hawaii squad that's been terrible on offense (118th in EPA per play) and defense (105th) in back-to-back losses.
The run-and-shoot offense is extremely reliant upon wide receivers getting open and making plays, yet the Rainbow Warriors have zero established answers at that position. No receiver has accumulated 100 yards through two games, and Micah Alejado hasn’t been able to shoulder the load (52.2% completion percentage, 4.9 yards per attempt).
COVERS INTEL: It's difficult to operate the run-and-shoot without a competent offensive line (Hawaii: 127th in PFF's pass blocking grade) or receiving corps (126th in receiving grade).
New Mexico State vs Hawaii Over/Under pick: Under 49.5
I'm taking the Under with Hawaii until further notice. There simply must be some verve shown on that side of the ball before expecting a magical switch to flip.
Averaging 4.3 yards per play against Stanford isn't great, but averaging 3.9 against UNLV is simply unforgivable. Timmy Chang's squad checks in at 120th in EPA per play on standard downs, routinely falling behind the sticks, and hasn't had the passing acumen (124th in passing success rate) to combat those troubles.
New Mexico State has a star in receiver TK King (172 yards, 1 TD) but has yet to prove it can consistently press other buttons on offense. The Aggies should move the ball well against a bad Hawai'i defense (107th in EPA per play on standard downs), but it'd be surprising if they lit up the scoreboard.
New Mexico State vs Hawaii combo
Hawaii has struggled to build any momentum with a faulty offensive line and an injured Pofele Ashlock, the go-to target at receiver. The Rainbow Warriors have scored just one touchdown in the first half this season, and another slugglish start could spell disaster.
New Mexico State's offense is much improved with quarterback Trey Hedden (8.5 yards per attempt) and a fortified offensive line (25th in front seven havoc allowed), and the defense is always solid under Sanchez.
New Mexico State vs Hawaii combo
- New Mexico State +7.5
- New Mexico State first-half moneyline
- Hawaii team total Under 30.5
New Mexico State vs Hawaii odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: New Mexico State +7.5 | Hawaii -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (54%) | Under 49.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: New Mexico State 28% | Hawaii 72%
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New Mexico State vs Hawaii weather
There will be winds of 14-16 mph throughout the contest, which could hamper both passing attacks a bit.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
New Mexico State vs Hawaii trend to know
New Mexico State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico State vs. Hawaii.
How to watch New Mexico State vs Hawaii
| Location | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 11:59 p.m. ET |
| TV | MW+ |
New Mexico State vs Hawaii latest injuries
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