For the first time in a decade, the Iowa State Cyclones will have a new head coach for the Cy-Hawk series when it takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC).
After losing three of the last four Cy-Hawk Trophies to Matt Campbell's Cyclones, my Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction and college football picks expect the Hawkeyes to keep the trophy in Iowa City and live up to their billing as a 13.5-point favorite against Jimmy Rogers.
TOP PICK
Who will win Iowa State vs Iowa: Iowa -13.5
This is not the same Iowa State program that has won three of the last four Cy-Hawk Trophies. Matt Campbell is at Penn State now, and pretty much every relevant Cyclones player from last season is gone.
New head coach Jimmy Rogers inherited a roster that's ranked outside the Top 100 in returning production (45%), and 15 of his 22 starters played at the Group of Six, FCS, or JUCO level last season.
This Iowa team has a massive talent advantage, with Kirk Ferentz once again having one of the best offensive lines in the country, featuring two preseason All-Americans (Kade Pieper, Trevor Lauck).
Pieper and Lauck should pave the way for Tim Lester's Shanahan-inspired run scheme against a Cyclones defense that's ranked outside the Top 35 by SP+. I like Iowa to cover up to -15.5.
COVERS INTEL: Between Hayden Fry's (1979-1998) and Ferentz's (1999-present) tenures as Iowa head coach, Iowa State has had seven different head coaches lead the Cyclones. Iowa is 6-1 straight-up against those coaches in their first Cy-Hawk game, beating them by an average score of 35.1 to 9.1.
Iowa State vs Iowa Over/Under pick: Under 41.5
The recent Iowa State vs. Iowa rivalry history is full of Unders - it's hit in six of the last seven Cy-Hawk games. That trend should continue this year, even with Iowa projected to score 27+ points at home.
It's going to be difficult for Iowa State to find the end zone more than once, and to finish with even 13 points at Kinnick Stadium.
In Week 1 against a Southeast Missouri State team coming off a 4-8 season, Iowa State put up just 303 total yards and had the ball for a shade over 23 minutes.
That was against a defense ranked 195th by SP+ ... Iowa is ranked 11th.
The Hawkeyes' run-first approach should also help the clock churn in the second half, especially if they build an early lead.
Iowa State vs Iowa prop: Iowa State TT Under 13.5
Iowa State's roster turnover is immense, and it's a bigger problem on offense where there's a massive lack of proven Power Four talent.
The Cyclones are relying heavily on G6 and FCS transfers to fill their starting lineup on offense, with eight of its 11 starters being first-year transfers from the non-P4 level.
That includes QB Jaylen Raynor, who was a mixed bag at Arkansas State (52 TD passes and 53 turnover-worthy plays as a three-year starter). During his tenure with the Red Wolves, he played against four P4 defenses and struggled.
In those games, Raynor accounted for 11 turnover-worthy plays and just one TD pass while his team averaged 13.7 PPG.
Iowa's defense is the best he's ever faced, and I like the Under on Iowa State's points at 13.5 or better.
Iowa State vs Iowa combo
The Cy-Hawk series has historically been low-scoring, and this year's game should follow that trend, with Iowa State's offense being at a major disadvantage against Iowa's defense.
Many of the Cyclones' offensive starters have never faced a defense this strong.
Defensive coordinator Phil Parker had the Hawkeyes ranked Top 20 last season in defensive predicted points added (0.055) and Top five in the Big Ten in havoc rate (17.6%).
Iowa's defense and run game will be the difference at home, and I have the Hawkeyes winning 27-10 behind a strong second half from their offense.
Iowa State vs Iowa combo
- Iowa -14.5
- Under 41.5
- 1st half Under 20.5
Iowa State vs Iowa odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Iowa State +13.5 (47%) | Iowa -13.5 (54%)
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (49%) | Under 41.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Iowa State 17% | Iowa 83%
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Iowa State vs Iowa weather
There's a chance weather will impact the start of the Cy-Hawk game this year, with rain around 7 p.m. ET, but it's expected to dissipate shortly after kickoff. Poor weather would benefit Iowa's run-first approach.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Iowa State vs Iowa trend to know
Iowa has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games (+7.80 Units/59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs. Iowa.
How to watch Iowa State vs Iowa
| Location | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Iowa State vs Iowa latest injuries
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