The Gunners might be unbeaten, but my Sunderland vs Arsenal predictions argue the Black Cats can keep things close on Saturday, Sept. 12.
Find out why in my betting picks below, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on USA Network
Sunderland +1.5Sunderland vs Arsenal picks and predictions
My Sunderland vs Arsenal top pick: Sunderland +1.5 (62% probability)
Last season, Sunderland showed why home games matter, averaging 1.74 points per game and losing just four times in 19 games at the Stadium of Light, compared with 1.11 PPG on the road.
They’ve picked up all three points in their home games in the Premier League this season, and the home fans, plus the journey for away teams, do matter.
Arsenal head into Saturday following a Wednesday game in Italy and have another match on Tuesday.
They should win, but given they’ve won their past three games by a single goal, and Sunderland’s 4-2-3-1 will look to disrupt their ability to progress through the middle of the field, we should see the Black Cats cover the spread.
My Sunderland vs Arsenal Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 goals (55% probability)
Sunderland haven’t been that prolific this season, but we might see Wilson Isidor get the start after some strong cameos.
However, with Arsenal conceding just once in three EPL games, and having the lowest xGA (Expected Goals Against) in the league, it’s hard to see Sunderland breaking them down — especially with a striker who will be isolated due to his wingers being pushed back on defensive duty.
However, we won’t see many goals for Arsenal either. Sunderland have the fifth-best record in xGA, and their job will be to pack the midfield and frustrate the Gunners, forcing them to attack from wide. We saw Sunderland deploy five at the back against Brentford, and that’s a possibility here too, especially out of possession.
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Sunderland vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)
Sunderland +1.5
Under 2.5 goals
This feels like the cliched 1-0 to Arsenal here. The Gunners have dominated games against good opposition in Napoli and Chelsea but only won by a single goal — which is a slight concern as they struggle to capitalize on their chances.
Sunderland vs Arsenal odds
ArsenalOdds courtesy of DraftKings Predictions.
How to watch Sunderland vs Arsenal
| Location | Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
| Weather | Cloudy |
Sunderland vs Arsenal key injuries
Sunderland: Habib Diarra MID (Out), Romaine Mundle LW (Out)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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