In a rematch of last year's 14-7 win for Ohio State, Texas hosts the Buckeyes on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas.
Despite the Longhorns losing last year, they're a 1.5-point favorite at home this year against the Buckeyes, and my Ohio State vs. Texas prediction and college football picks project Arch Manning to win a shootout by these teams' standards this time around.
Who will win Ohio State vs Texas: Texas moneyline
The key to a Texas win at home against a college football championship odds favorite is Arch Manning. Last year's loss to Ohio State was his first collegiate road start, and it came against a defense littered with All-Americans and high NFL draft picks.
But those players are gone - the Buckeyes had seven defensive starters drafted, including five in the Top 62 (a modern-era record). And after a bumpy start to his first full season as Steve Sarkisian's QB1, Manning played up to his family name and had the highest QBR in the country from November onward (87.5).
Sarkisian bolstered the talent around Manning too, by bringing in Cam Coleman, Melvin Siani, Hollywood Smothers, and Raleek Brown via the portal. With Texas' offensive improvements, I like them to win at 55% or better.
COVERS INTEL: Texas was Top 15 in the country in offensive explosiveness last season (1.366) and Top 10 in Week 1 (1.580).
TOP PICK
Ohio State vs Texas Over/Under pick: Over 49.5
When Ohio State and Texas played last year, neither Julian Sayin nor Manning had ever started against a ranked opponent before. Now, they're both Heisman Trophy odds contenders and are considered two of the best QBs in the country.
They're also surrounded by NFL talent; each has a projected Top 10 pick at wide receiver (Jeremiah Smith for Ohio State, Coleman for Texas), a veteran offensive line, and offensive head coaches who consistently produce top-ranked units. Both Texas and Ohio State are ranked Top five on offense by SP+.
And a lot has changed for both defenses since last year. Ohio State is 78th in returning defensive production (50%), and Texas has a new coordinator in Will Muschamp, who hadn't called a defense this decade before last week. I'm expecting both QBs to shine in what will feel like a shootout compared to last year (the Over is in play up to 50.5 for me).
Ohio State vs Texas combo
This is one of the best games of the season, pitting No. 1 against No. 4, and as I said in my college football Top 25 predictions, the winner will be the CFP National Championship favorite on Sunday morning.
But there's a reason Manning leads the 2027 NFL Draft odds, and it's not because of his last name. He's the most talented QB in the country, and even last year, against a Buckeyes defense that was one of the best in recent memory, Manning had flashes of brilliance.
With Ohio State losing so much defensive talent and Manning gaining so much offensive help, this time he can lead the Longhorns to a win in a game I expect to be much higher scoring. I have Texas taking it 27-24.
Ohio State vs Texas combo
- Texas ML
- Over 49.5
- Ohio State TT Over 23.5
Ohio State vs Texas odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Ohio State +1.5 | Texas -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (48%) | Under 49.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Ohio State 47% | Texas 53%
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Ohio State vs Texas weather
Though this game is in the evening, heat is expected to be a major factor in Austin. The temperature around kickoff will be around 97 degrees Fahrenheit, which should favor the offenses.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Ohio State vs Texas trend to know
Texas has only hit the Under in five of its last 12 games (-2.65 Units / -20% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs. Texas.
How to watch Ohio State vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Ohio State vs Texas latest injuries
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