The Toronto Blue Jays return home tonight with a chance to gain ground in the Wild Card race, and my Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions believe they're in prime position to pick up another win as -125 favorites.
Read on for my free MLB picks for this Friday, Sept. 11 matchup, with first pitch set for 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre.
Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions
Orioles vs Blue Jays best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-125)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a clear opportunity to create separation against another club hanging around the playoff picture in the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
Toronto gets a favorable matchup against Chris Bassitt, who carries a 4.96 ERA and has struggled badly with left-handed hitters. Southpaws are hitting .322 against him, and eight of the nine home runs he's allowed have come from that side.
He has also been far worse away from Baltimore, posting a 6.43 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in nine road appearances.
Max Scherzer’s 6.03 season ERA is ugly, but his recent form has been considerably more encouraging (3.60 ERA last seven starts), and he doesn’t need to be vintage against a Baltimore lineup that has cooled off (28th by OPS in September).
Toronto has several left-handed bats capable of exploiting Bassitt, and I prefer backing the Jays outright at a manageable -125 rather than asking them to cover the run line. Play to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Lefties are batting .322 with a .397 OBP and .505 SLG against Bassitt this season, while righties have managed just .264 with a .321 SLG.
Orioles vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
I’m leaning into a Toronto-friendly offensive game without asking either lineup to completely explode. The Blue Jays moneyline anchors the ticket, while dropping the total to Over 7.5 gives us breathing room if Toronto does most of the scoring.
Nathan Lukes completes the parlay, and his matchup with Bassitt is the main attraction. Lukes is batting .294 with a .422 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, and with lefties hitting .322 against Bassitt, he has a realistic path to cashing with either two singles or one extra-base hit.
Orioles vs Blue Jays SGP
- Blue Jays moneyline
- Over 7.5
- Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 total bases
Alberta: Sports betting is now live!
Regulated Alberta sports betting has officially launched, allowing sportsbooks to operate under provincial oversight.
You can sign up and join BET99 — one of the best Alberta betting apps — now to get in on the Blue Jays action!
Orioles vs Blue Jays home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+675)
Jesus Sanchez is my favorite longshot on Toronto’s home run board because his power profile lines up perfectly with Bassitt’s biggest weakness. Bassitt has allowed eight of his nine home runs to left-handed hitters, and just one home run to a right-handed hitter all season, which makes Sanchez’s handedness an especially important part of the matchup.
Sanchez has also done his best work at home, batting .279 with a .522 slugging percentage and seven home runs in 136 at-bats at Rogers Centre.
The +675 price gives us considerably more upside than Toronto’s more obvious power bats. At this number, I’m comfortable taking a quarter-unit shot on the left-handed bat with the clearest matchup advantage.
- Best bets: 16-16, -0.37 units
- SGPs: 3-30, -4.56 units
- HR picks: 4-28, -2.13 units
Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +105 | Toronto -125
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 | Toronto -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Orioles vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays own a .625 win percentage since July 23 (25-15), tied for the best mark in the American League during that period. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Orioles vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Chris Bassitt (6-5, 4.96 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Max Scherzer (2-7, 6.03 ERA) |
Orioles vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Orioles vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
